But Josh Bell has been out since April 24 after surgery on his torn meniscus and was largely ineffective in his playing time before that.  That stat line shown above belongs to the very age-appropriate 20 year old, Gregory Polanco.  Not only does Polanco have 7 HR (tied for 3rd in the league), but he also has 10 steals (tied for 13th — there’s a lot of speedsters in the SAL).  Using the ever-popular “on pace” calculator, Polanco would turn in a 28 HR/40 steal season. 

Odds he actually does that?  Not great.  But even if he turns in a 20 HR/25 SB season, that would be a fantastic season for the 2009 international signee that last year turned in a 694 OPS in the Gulf Coast League.  Polanco only had 11 extra-base hits in 169 AB’s (124 ISO), but was a perfect 18 for 18 in stolen bases, so it was very easy to place him into the no-bat/high-steal bin for outfielders (think Nyjer Morgan).  Polanco has the frame at 6′-4″ to add a few “el bees” to his current listed weight of 170 pounds, further increasing his power potential.

Much of the focus on West Virginia has been on Alen Hanson (and rightly so), but the case could be made that Polanco has been the better overall player to this point.  While Hanson had the ridiculously unreal April, he has been somewhat pedestrian in May (1137 OPS in April, 731 OPS in May).  Polanco on the other hand had a well-above-the-line April (838 OPS) and has followed that up with a fantastic May (989 OPS).

There is plenty of room for Polanco to move up to High A Bradenton if he continues this pace in early June.  None of the current OF’s at Bradenton are putting up great numbers.  If Wes Freeman continues to struggle at the plate (516 OPS), a swap of Polanco and Freeman would be conceivable, especially considering that Freeman essentially skipped over Low A without ever having success at the level.

Polanco’s surprising breakout season allows the Pirates to potentially add yet another OF prospect to the mix with Marte, Grossman, and Bell.  And that is always a good problem to have.

In 2010, we were introduced to a team of pitching prospects that were dubbed The Altoona Four because they all were pitching at Double A Altoona.  The leader of the group, due to ridiculously fantastic man-perm, was Rudy Owens.  He was coming off of a dominant 2009 split between Low A Hickory and High A Lynchburg.  He followed that up with a Pirates’ Pitcher of the Year in 2010 at Altoona when he went 12-6, 2.46 ERA in 150 IP, giving up only 124 hits, walking just 23, and striking out 132.

The rogue of the group was Bryan Morris.  There was a great deal of pressure placed on Morris by fans, as he represented the best hope to gain long-term value from the Jason Bay deal.  After embarrasing the Florida State League for 8 starts, he was called up to Altoona and made 16 solid, yet unspectacular starts for Altoona.  In 89 IP, he went 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, yielding 87 hits, walking 31, and whiffing 84.

The youngster of the group was Jeff Locke, part of the return for the Nate McLouth trade to Atlanta.  Although not significantly younger than the others, if at all, Locke looks like the paperboy that used to deliver your newspaper to your door.  He lagged behind the others in getting to Altoona because his 2009 stint with the Pirates was poor after arriving from Atlanta.  He spent most of the year in the FSL, but did make 10 good starts for the Curve going 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA.  In his 57 innings, he gave up 57 hits, walked 12, and struck out 56 batters.

The wildcard of the group, both figuratively and semi-literally, was Justin Wilson.  The only Huntington draftee of the four (2008, 5th round), Wilson started the whole year at Altoona and went 11-8 with a 3.09 ERA.  In 142 IP, he allowed 109 hits and struck out 134, but his long-time nemesis (Captain Control) reared his ugly head as he issued 71 free passes.  But he was still considered a high-end prospect as a pitcher…if he could just get those walks under control.

If 2010 was the intro to our heroes and the “first movie”, then 2011 was the 2nd movie where they start to experience adversity.  By and large, it was not a memorable year for the Altoona Four.  Part of the problem may have been that they were split up to start 2011, with Locke and Morris staying back in Altoona, while Owens and Wilson went up to Indianapolis.  Perhaps their struggles are because they’re like Voltron — they only function properly when they’re all assembled.

Owens came into the year out of shape, pitching-wise and was ineffective for the majority of the year.  He eventually was shut down with shoulder issues, but not before Owens put up a 5.05 ERA.  In 112 IP, he gave up 129 hits, issued 32 walks, and struck out only 71 batters with a .289 BAA.  Wilson struggled again with his control and had a very uneven year, some nights he was unhittable and other nights he was all over the park.  Wilson put up a 4.13 ERA, but had 21 starts and 9 relief appearances.  In his 124 IP, he gave up only 121 hits, but allowed 67 walks and struck out 94 batters.  The silver lining was when he was switched to relief at the end of the year, he was regularly hitting 97+ mph on his fastball.

Morris, somewhat surprisingly, started the year in Altoona and made that decision look good by having 6 blah starts and then spending time on the disabled list (again).  When he returned to the lineup in mid-June, he became a reliever full-time for the remainder of the season.  This was viewed as a disappointing turn of events, as mentioned before he was the great hope from the Jason Bay trade.  As is common, Morris’s fastball velocity spiked when he went to the pen.  Morris never did get the call up to Indy in 2011.  Locke had a very quiet year, but through steady performances and injuries to a multitude of pitchers at end of the year, he made The Show for 4 starts in September.  His so-so Altoona season didn’t seem worthy of a promotion, but because of the aforementioned injuries he got moved up to Indy.  While there, Locke turned it up a notch and pitched some of his best innings as a Pirate farmhand.  In 5 starts at AAA, Locke pitched 28 IP, gave up 25 hits, walked 9 and struck out 25 with only a .240 BAA (his lowest as a Pirate).  This led to his callup, which was not good, but he still got there ahead of any of the other Four.

Here we sit 1/4 of the way through the 2012 minor league season and we can safely say that so far this year can be dubbed The Rise of the Altoona Four (now they have grown into the Indy Four, but stick with it).  Owens and Locke are both pitching fantastically and are viable callup candidates to Pittsburgh at any time.  Morris has become a dominant reliever with a strong 3 pitch mix, highlighted by a mid-90′s fastball, and is a legitimate candidate to be the next closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Wilson has already been part of a combined no-hitter, but is still having his control problems.  However, his pure stuff could easily play up in the bullpen and become a power lefty out of the bullpen.

What a difference a year makes.  Our heroes looked lost last year and robbed the Pirates’ system of that key 2nd-tier depth behind Cole/Taillon/Marte.  Now they are all thriving and all of The Four should see the major leagues at some point this year.  At the outset of the 2013 season, it is entirely possible that all of The Four could be part of the 12 man pitching staff for the big league club.  The final chapter is not completed yet, but it is looking very promising for our heroes.

In my leagues, there was always a guy that would wait for an injury to happen and then pounce on that owner like a lion on a wounded gazelle in the Sarengeti.  It was predictable and everyone knew it was coming, yet that owner who just lost a key guy would inevitably trade another star player for 70 cents on the dollar to fill a hole somewhere else.

Unfortunately, that fantasy sports mentality has carried over to the way people view the Pittsburgh Pirates and how Neal Huntington and Friends should run the team.  When Kevin Correia pitched a great game earlier this year, you would hear the hue and cry of “Trade him now!  Let’s get our next starting shortstop!”  Every GM in the league knows what Correia is and what he isn’t.  What he isn’t is a pitcher you give up a Top 100 level prospect for.

 With the rash of injuries to closer around the league, culminating with the loss of Mariano Rivera for the Yankees, the message boards are all aflutter with people thinking we should trade Hanrahan to the Yankees and rob them blind.  It’s like the Duke brothers from the Eddie Murphy movie Trading Places — “Sell, Mortimer!  Sell!”

We have just flipped the calendar to May and the Pirates are 11-15 after finishing off a brutal April schedule.  The Cardinals have gotten off to a fantastic start and sure don’t look like they miss Albert Pujols, but they’ll come back to earth soon enough.  You don’t think that Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook are going to have sub 1.50 ERA’s all season do you?  The Pirates held their own and the rest of the NL Central looks mediocre at best.  The Cubs seem to have already given up on the season.  Jeff Luhnow, new GM of the Astros, is itching to rid himself of any of Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, and Carlos Lee.  That team will wilt in the summer.  The Brewers do look like they miss Prince Fielder, especially with replacement Mat Gamel injured long-term and Aramis Ramirez off to a bad start.  The Reds, my pick to win the NL Central, have not hit on all cylinders yet.

What I’m saying is that the Pirates still have a chance at the division because IT’S ONLY MAY 5th.  Something else to keep in mind — this year there are 2 wild cards up for grabs.  That means that more teams will be hesitant to trade off assets thinking that they have a chance to make a run at a wild card.  This will result in a very bleak seller’s market.

In my mind, there are 4 states that a baseball team can exist in, but only in 1 state at a time.  There is Rebuilding, Building, Reloading, and Contending.

Rebuilding is when a team knows it has to tear it down and start over again from the ground up.  For 2012, these teams should be the White Sox, Twins, A’s, Mariners, Mets, Astros, Cubs, and Padres.  These 8 teams should be looking to offload salary anywhere they can in the hopes of improving their teams 3-4 years down the road.

Building is when a team has stripped down, identified their core, and is augmenting that core in the hopes of becoming a contender either that season or the next 1-2 years.  Teams in 2012 that fall here are Orioles, Blue Jays, Indians, Royals, and Pirates.  These 5 teams should see where the season takes them and determine if a wild card is viable at an earlier time period than other teams — perhaps in mid-June.  At that point, then they should decide whether to add a veteran or offload one for a piece that may bring more immediate help in a 1-2 year timeframe.

Reloading is the trickiest category to define and hard for many teams to admit.  It’s when a veteran team has fancied itself a Contender, but things may not be working out for them that year.  They don’t want to fully commit to Rebuilding, so instead they try to re-allocate salaries to fill other holes in an attempt to still stay Contenders for as long as possible.  In 2012, the Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers, Dodgers, and Rockies fall into this category.  These 6 teams are all going to do what they can in 2012 to go with the main core of their team this year and try to make small to medium-size moves to stay in the race. 

That leaves 11 teams in the Contender category — the Rays, Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Angels, Nationals, Marlins, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Giants.  These are teams that made their big moves in the offseason and feel that their arrow is pointed due north.  The wild card is not their mission; rather they fancy themselves as division contenders thanks to either big free agents and/or shrewd acquistions.  These are teams that adopt the “flags fly forever” mentality and will trade pieces of the farm system if need be.

But major trades are not going to happen on May 5th and teams are certainly not going to hemorrage key pieces of their farm system.  Most teams will try to fill voids from within or shop for low-cost solutions that don’t involve giving up major assets.  Only in mid-July does the market start to come into focus on big trades typically. 

For the Pirates, nothing has changed on their outlook of their own team from Spring Training to now.  They know it’s an incomplete team and they still need more pieces, but they’re not going to start jettison key players like Hanrahan one month into the season.  Being a GM is not like day trading stocks; you don’t have to squeeze every last penny out of a stock after 1-2 good games.  Believe it or not, the Pirates are actually trying to win games at the major league level in 2012.  The time for rebuilding is past — the Pirates are now building towards a wild card. 

But if I were still playing fantasy baseball, I would definitely be sending an email to the guy that owned Rivera.

So why did I title this post “encouraging”?

Over at Baseball Reference, there is a link that shows the 2011 versus 2012 attendance for the same amount of home games.  After the first 9 games in 2011, the Pirates had an average attendance of 19,040.  This has resulted in an increase of 3,537 fans/game at this same point as last year.  Throughout all of baseball, there has been a year-over-year attendance increase of 1,351/game, so the Pirates still have a net increase of 2,186 additional fans over the league average.

The Pirates raw increase of 3,537 fans per game is the 7th highest in all of Major League Baseball.  Some of the increase can be due to the opening series with the Phillies drawing a large amount of Phillie fans.  But the Pirates have also had some cold nights and had to compete against Pens’ playoff games (sadly, not enough of them) in a few dates, so it probably evens out.

There is excitement about this team and what is being built.  The fans that came back last year have continued to come back this year.  Considering that April is perennially the worst month for attendance with the Pirates, due to kids being in school and the spotty weather, this is an encouraging trendline.

In 2010, the Pirates averaged 19,919 fans per game.  This increased to 23,956 per game in 2011, a rise of 4,037 fans per game.  If the Pirates can maintain just the 3,537 additional patrons per game that they already have built in, that would give them an attendance figure of 27,493 per game (this utilizes 71.6% of PNC Park’s capacity).  Using last year’s figures, that would have put them 10th in the National League, right in line with Cincinnati.

Using the numbers from last year’s Incremental Value of a Fan article, each additional fan generates $29.30 for the Pirates.  An additional 3,537 fans per game would garner $8.39M extra revenue for the team.  Last year during the lead-up to the trade deadline and draft deadline, the Pirates used the spike in attendance-generated revenue to acquire Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee, plus break the bank on Josh Bell in the draft.

With the draft expense stream fixed this year, the Pirates could funnel this year’s attendance spike into the major league team payroll, if the team finds itself in the position to be buyers again.

Neil Walker also had a power-free month of April.  His 2 doubles mark the fewest amount of extra base hits in his career during any full month of service (he had 1 double in his September 2009 cameo).  Like McCutchen, his zero homers in April also mark the first time he has gone homerless in a full month of games (he had zero homers in Sept 2009 and May 2010 when he was called up for the last 7 games of the month).

If these two cogs in the middle of the order can start driving the ball, both into gaps and over the fence, the offense could finally break out of their doldrums fully.  With Pedro Alvarez gaining confidence in his swing each game, coupled with steady production from the tandem of McGehee/Jones, the Pirates could have legitimate power at spots 3 thru 6 in their order.

When you start the year off batting .400/.434/.700 (1134 OPS) with 8 stolen bases and 4 home runs, some plaudits will come your way.  Now the question that many people are starting to ask is — “When will Hanson get moved up?”

The short answer is that there is no rush to move him up at the start of May.  Last year, Hanson started off hot in the Gulf Coast League, only to fade in the second half of the season — presumably from wearing down physically.  Hanson is listed as 5′-11″ and 152 pounds, so the grind of a long season will affect him differently than a larger player, especially one that is not playing as active a position as shortstop.

Last year, Matt Curry laid waste to the South Atlantic League in a way that had not been seen since Steve Pearce and Brad Eldred were putting up crazy stats in their minor league careers.  Curry did not get promoted, albeit a 2 level jump to Altoona, until May 30th.  And this was while putting up a .361/.477/.671 (1148 OPS) line with more walks than strikeouts (35 to 29).  For all of his fantastic stats to start the year, Hanson is currently sporting a 6 BB/22 K line in 100 AB’s.  I’ll allow you to do the complicated math to figure out those current percentages.

The majority on non-need based promotions within a system are not made until around or after the June draft.  The reasons are two fold: First, there is more of a representative sample of work to warrant a promotion or not.  Second, new college players will fill the short-season leagues or in some cases allow for placement at one of the A-ball levels, thus creating the need for advancements throughout the system to compensate.

Something else to consider is that there is no obvious room for advancement throughout the system, due to the fact that the Pirates have set each middle infield position at the four full-season affiliates up with interesting or semi-interesting prospects.

AAA — d’Arnaud (SS)/Mercer (2B) *

AA — Holt (SS)/Cunningham (2B) *

A+ — Ngeope (SS)/Maggi (2B)

A — Hanson (SS)/Carvajal (2B)

* — Both d’Arnaud (concussion) and Cunningham (wrist) are injured, but it is unclear the extent of the respective injuries.

All of the players shown above need to be vetted carefully by the Pirates in 2012.  There are no organizational soldiers holding a placeholder spot to allow upward advancement of Hanson. 

There are a series of caveats, though, as there commonly are in life.  The first is the asterisk shown above with the d’Arnaud and Cunningham injuries.  Say for instance that d’Arnaud is determined to need a significant portion of the season to recover from his concussion.  In that scenario, Brock Holt would get moved up as he statistically deserved to be in AAA in 2012.  He was simply caught up in a numbers game at the outset of this season.  The same holds true for Cunningham — Maggi is hitting well at the start of the year and could be moved up and challenged.  These injury scenarios present an opportunity to create space for Hanson to advance.

Another scenario would be a position change for one of these players.  For instance, Jordy Mercer has seen some time in his career at 3B.  He has been determined already to be more advanced defensively at SS than d’Arnaud, so there may be a possibility that he could be moved to 3B in the second half of the year to create space for Holt to advance to AAA, thus causing a chain reaction of promotions.

The final method of advancement is a trade of one of the players above Hanson.  None of the players are centerpieces of deals, but all could be considered as the 2nd or 3rd piece of a trade potentially.  A trade would then free up a spot for players to be bumped up and Hanson get promoted.

There is nothing wrong with allowing a 19 year old to learn the tools of his trade in one place for a full year.  Hanson is well ahead of the curve in terms of performance age relative to the league.  Not only will this be his first year in a full-season league, but he is also playing shortstop full-time, which is a position that most national scouts do not think he can handle long term.  The most likely outcome is that Alen Hanson will get a taste of High A in August for the last month of the season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IRugln4Zy8

The video is a look inside an aspect of McCutchen’s routine — getting his dreadlocks (or just locks as he prefers they be called) cleaned and styled.

The highlight for me was Step 3 when he has the pile of locks sitting on top his head looking like Princess Leia’s cinnamon bun hairdo.  It was also humorous when McCutchen says he hopes that pitchers get distracted by cool his hair looks and throw him a fat pitch to hit.  If that were the case, Lastings Milledge would be the new Tony Gwynn.

All in all, it’s fun to see McCutchen in a relaxed non-baseball setting.

Going into the Tuesday night game, the Pirates’ batters have an overall triple slash line of .202/.249/.281 (530 OPS).  That translates into a .236 wOBA (an average hitter should be around .320 to .330) and a wRC+ of 46 (runs created in comparison to a league average figure of 100).  Ghastly.

If you parse the grains of sand, it gets even worse.  With the bases empty, the Pirates are .193/.226/.302 (528 OPS) and have a BABIP of .241 (a typical hitter is around .300 to .310).  The wOBA is .234 and the wRC+ is 45, representative of their overall numbers shown above.

With runners in scoring position, an occurence slightly above the frequency of a total eclipse of the sun, the Pirates are hitting .180/.282/.180 (462 OPS).  Their collective wOBA is .225, BABIP is .219, and a wRC+ of 39.  Again…ghastly.

Here’s an interesting little quirk from those two scenarios.  With runners in scoring position, the Pirates have a walk rate of 11.3% and a strikeout rate of 14.2%.  With the bases empty, when you would think they should be working the count to get runners on base and into scoring position, their walk rate is 2.9% and have a strikeout rate of 25.2%.  The Pirates are just hacking away ferociously when there is no one on, yet patient when they should be more aggressively looking to drive in runs.

To put this all into perspective, the offense will not remain this bad the whole year.  It just won’t.  Six or seven regulars are well below their established norms and will rise back to their averages.  Here are the overall numbers for the 2011 Pirates, who were certainly not an offensive juggernaut themselves:

.244 BA/.309 OBP/.368 SLG (677 OPS), .298 wOBA, .301 BABIP, and an 85 wRC+

It will get better.

Pirates Prospects was represented, along with John from Slew Footers, and Tom Smith from the fantastically irreverent Rumbunter.  We were able to go on the field during batting practice, talk with Frank Coonelly on the field, and then enjoy the game from a suite (with the Pens game on ROOT behind us).  Thanks go out to Terry Rodgers from the Pirates Social Media Department for setting up a fantastic evening.

Some bullet thoughts on the action (currently as of this writing in the 6th inning, the Pirates are down 2-1):

Morton was very good tonight, if not overly efficient.  He gave the grounds crew a break tonight by striking out 6 and not inducing as many ground balls.  His curve was really working tonight.

Presley’s inside-the-park-homer was a sight to behold.  As soon as the Cards’ CF crashed into the wall, it was assumed that Presley was going to make a beeline for home.  He got in with no problem.  That’s also the 2nd CF the Pirates can add to their pelt list of injuries.

Tabata might be breaking out, not in spectacular fashion, but he’s 2-2 and making solid contact.  Baby steps.  Barajas and Barmes are still in a coma at the plate, but Barmes had a nice unassisted double play in the first inning.

Right now Barajas, Alvarez, and Barmes are a black hole at 6-7-8.  There were a lot of flailing at bad pitches, weak check swings, and little contact.

The pitching is looking legit, with AJ Burnett on the way to give it more heft.  If 2-3 hitters break out soon, this could be a fun summer.

So I went online to Baseball Reference’s Scoring Page and wanted to prove/disprove my suspicion.  I thought I would go back 5 years and check the 1st inning run breakdown.

2007 — Pirates scored 101 runs in 61 games during the 1st while giving up 132 runs in 67 games

2008 — Pirates scored 83 runs in 43 games and gave up 122 runs in 54 games

2009 — Pirates scored 80 runs in 48 games and gave up 106 runs in 62 games

2010 — Pirates scored 92 runs in 44 games and gave up 103 runs in 57 games

2011 — Pirates scored 85 runs in 49 games and gave up 85 runs in 48 games

Over the past 5 seasons, the Pirates have had a 107 run deficit during the 1st inning, with last year being the only year they’ve come close to breaking even, let alone having the upper hand on their opponent after the 1st inning.  Within this 5 year period, the Pirates’ opponents scored runs in the 1st inning on average 57.6 times a year.  That’s a shade over 1 time every 3 games.

Conversely, the Pirates have scored runs in the 1st inning on average 49 times a year, a shade under 1 time every 3 games.  So there’s a net of 8 times per year the Pirates are being outscored by 21 runs a year.  It doesn’t seem like much, but it’s still an incremental loss.

The more interesting research project, which I do not have the time or inclination to perform, would be to cross-check each box score over the past 5 years and see how many times the Pirates either led, trailed, or were even after the 1st inning of each game.

We all know that the Pirates have not been very good over these past five years, or have had very good offensive teams, so I wondered how an above-average team with a good offense fared over the past 5 years.  I chose the St. Louis Cardinals as a test case.

2007 (78-84) – The Cards scored 63 runs in 39 games, while giving up 109 runs in 58 games

2008 (86-76) — The Cards scored 117 runs in 57 games, while giving up 72 runs in 42 games

2009 (91-71) – The Cards scored 97 runs in 57 games, while giving up 92 runs in 53 games

2010 (86-76) – The Cards scored 113 runs in 57 games, while giving up 73 runs in 39 games

2011 (90-72) – The Cards scored 103 runs in 56 games, while giving up 74 runs in 38 games

Interesting to note that the only time the Cardinals had a negative run differential in the 1st inning was the only year in the past 5 that they have had a losing record.  Probably not a direct correlation to overall record, but it is an interesting trendline.

Overall this same 5 year period, the Cards have a 73 run surplus over their opponents in the first inning, an average of 14.6 runs per year.  The Cards averaged scoring a run in the 1st inning 53 times during this period, while their pitchers set the tone by allowing a run only 46 times.  Again, very incremental differences matter as there is a net of 7 games and 14.6 runs per year.

The Pirates are not perpetually trailing after 1 inning, even though it sure seems that way at times, but this did reveal an interesting potential correlation between having a winning team and having a losing team.  Perhaps an enterprising staff writer at Pirates Prospects will take the time one day to flesh this out further and see if A+B does = C, with respect to 1st inning run differential.