The Pirates entered the 2010 season with a lot of hitting talent in the upper levels. Andrew McCutchen had just made the jump to the majors in 2009 with strong results. Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata were set to make their highly anticipated debuts by mid-season that year. No one was expecting much out of Neil Walker until he started putting up some surprise breakout numbers to start the year, eventually getting the call to take over second base.

The group of Alvarez, McCutchen, Walker, and Tabata was supposed to provide the core of the offense. McCutchen has been the only consistent player from that group. Walker and Tabata have been inconsistent, while inconsistent doesn’t really do justice to the roller coaster ride that Alvarez has been on. But in 2010, all four players were looking promising.

The situation in the farm system was the exact opposite in 2010 as it is now. The Pirates had a lot of hitting talent, but no pitching. “The Altoona Four” was a group of pitchers that led the Lynchburg Hillcats to the Carolina League championship in 2009. But not many were counting on them. Rudy Owens had a strong year. Justin Wilson flashed dominant stuff at times, but his overall numbers weren’t encouraging. Bryan Morris was learning a new delivery. And Jeff Locke was cursed by my presence at every one of his starts. On top of all of this, Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, and Luis Heredia weren’t in the system.

Two years ago the offense looked set for the near future, while the pitching was a big question mark. Two years later the pitching looks great. The Pirates are seeing a lot of success in the majors. The “Altoona Four” has gone on to become the…well, we don’t really have a name for them. I guess you only get one of those names if you lead your team to the Eastern League title, one year after winning the Carolina League title. Whatever the name, they’re looking like good options in Triple-A. None of them top of the rotation guys, but guys who can have success in the majors. Then, lower in the system, we could see Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole start to make their way through the system, potentially arriving next year.

The pitching looks set for the near future, just like the offense did in 2010. That’s something to keep in mind when suggesting draft strategies based on need. The first round pick this year isn’t going to arrive until 2014 at the earliest. The offensive problems might not be a problem by then.

In 2010 we didn’t expect Charlie Morton to be a key part of the rotation in 2012 (especially as the 2010 season went on). We didn’t expect that the Dodgers would trade James McDonald for Octavio Dotel, and that McDonald would become arguably the best pitcher on the staff. We didn’t know that Erik Bedard would eventually sign with the Pirates, or that the Yankees would pay the Pirates to take A.J. Burnett. We didn’t know about the Altoona Four, Taillon, Cole, or Heredia.

What offensive player this year will pull a Charlie Morton, going from a disaster of a season to a key contributor in two years? What player will come via trade? What free agents will sign? What lower level minor league players will emerge as options?

If the best player is a bat, take the bat. But don’t take a bat because the 2012 team needs a bat. Regardless of what the 2012 team needs, that bat won’t arrive until 2014 or later. And the needs in 2014 may be totally different than the needs in 2012.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost 7-4 to the Nationals. Erik Bedard made his first start since his injury.

**Prospect Watch: A rough start for Jameson Taillon, and Alen Hanson hits his sixth homer.

**Alex Presley was optioned to Triple-A today, and Evan Meek was recalled. The Pirates will likely recall a position player in the next day or two. I took a look at the options.

**The Pitch F/X preview for the Washington Nationals.

**Michael McKenry is learning to adjust to the backup role.

40-Man Roster

Starling Marte - Everyone wants to see the top prospect up, but Marte isn’t ready. He’s currently hitting for a .261/.323/.437 line in 119 at-bats, with a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. I’m only listing him here to say that right now Marte needs to stay down in Triple-A.

Jordy Mercer - He’s been a hot hitter lately, with a .339/.381/.407 line in 59 at-bats in May. If the Pirates are looking for someone to serve as a designated hitter, Mercer isn’t your typical power bat for the position. But you could argue that he’s ready for a shot at the majors. It would be ideal to give him a few more weeks in Triple-A, just to show that his recent success isn’t a fluke.

Matt Hague - Hague is also hitting well in May, after struggling in April. He’s not hitting for power though, which is a big change from how he started the year. Out of the 40-man options, Hague seems the most likely to get the call, since he earned his way to the majors once already this year.

Gorkys Hernandez - He’s a strong defensive outfielder with speed, but doesn’t have much of a bat. He’s more of a fourth outfielder, and it wouldn’t make sense to have him on the roster with Nate McLouth also on the roster.

Non-Roster Candidates

Jake Fox - He was crushing the ball up until about a week ago. Now he’s hitting for a .274/.343/.435 line in 62 at-bats. He’d be a good power option, as he’s shown some power in the majors before.

Jeff Clement - He’s also been hitting well, with a .287/.380/.415 line in 94 at-bats. Like Fox, he has shown some power in the majors, but not much else. I’d actually be surprised if he got the call, since he seems to be lower on the Indianapolis depth chart than Fox and Hague.

Jeff Larish - The Pirates recently added Larish in a minor trade. I don’t see him getting the call. He seems more like the guy who will stick around in Triple-A and take over for the guy who gets the call.

If the Pirates called up one of the non-roster guys (and my money would be on Fox from that group) they would have to clear a space on the 40-man roster. If they’re only calling up a guy for the weekend series against Detroit, it wouldn’t make sense to go that route. If they’re calling up a guy for the long haul to replace Presley, it might make sense to go with someone like Fox and see what he can do in the majors. Right now, his career .237/.288/.425 line would be an upgrade off the bench, adding a power bat to the team.

Purely a guess here, as the Pirates haven’t given any indication, but I’d put my money on Hague getting the call, with Fox being another candidate if they’re looking for more than a weekend option.

Left handed starter in the Pirates system? He’s going to be the next Paul Maholm or Zach Duke. Top high school pitching prospect taken in the draft? The next Bobby Bradley. A defensive shortstop with a weak bat? The next Jack Wilson.

The thing about those comparisons is that they provide such a limited view. It’s like getting an opinion about the world from someone who has never left their small town. They only have so much reference to draw a comparison. Would Jeff Locke and Rudy Owens be the next Duke and Maholm if they pitched for Philadelphia? Or would people be hoping for the next Cole Hamels? Would Jameson Taillon be the next Bobby Bradley if he pitched for the Dodgers? Or would he be the next Clayton Kershaw?

Then there’s Deven Marrero. I’ve already seen a few Jack Wilson comparisons made with disdain due to Marrero’s strong defense at shortstop and weak bat. That’s kind of surprising, seeing as how Jack Wilson was such a fan favorite when he was here. That might be a fair comparison, but once again, it’s only limited to the Pirates.

Inevitably there will be one comparison that will be made if the Pirates do select Marrero, which seems more likely considering that Keith Law has them taking the Arizona State shortstop in his first mock draft. You could say “what does Keith Law know?” But that was the same thing that was said when Law was talking about the Pirates taking Tony Sanchez in 2009. He also correctly guessed Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole.

If Law is right again this year, the pick of Marrero will probably be compared to Tony Sanchez or Daniel Moskos. Earlier today Law tweeted that Marrero wasn’t Tony Sanchez. I agree, as they’re two different scenarios. Sanchez was taken fourth overall, but was ranked 32nd. He was never considered a top five prospect, although there was talk that he could have gone to a team in the 10-15 range if the Pirates didn’t take him. Marrero, on the other hand, entered the year in the top five, and is currently a consensus top 15 prospect.

For that reason I think a pick of Marrero would be more comparable to Daniel Moskos. The Pirates took Moskos fourth overall in 2007. Fans immediately hated the pick, because catcher Matt Wieters was still on the board. But Moskos wasn’t a reach. Baseball America rated him eighth overall in their pre-draft rankings. They had him ahead of Jason Heyward (9), Jarrod Parker (10), Madison Bumgarner (14), Max Scherzer (17), and other players who are currently in the majors.

Moskos wasn’t a reach. You could argue that he was appropriate value for the pick at the time. The problem was that he wasn’t the best player on the board. Matt Wieters was the clear pick at the time, and probably shouldn’t have been there, since he was rated second overall going in to the draft.

There probably won’t be a Wieters available for the Pirates this year. The only way that will happen is if one of the top six players (Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Correa, Kyle Zimmer) magically falls to eighth overall. That seems unlikely to happen. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be better options on the board. They might not be considerably better than Marrero, but they’re better. My preference would be Lucas Giolito if he’s healthy and on the board. I’d also go for Albert Almora or Max Fried, with Almora being the preference.

This brings up a few interesting situations. First, if the Pirates took someone like power hitting third baseman Richie Shaffer, I don’t think people would be as upset, even though Shaffer is ranked lower in every list than Marrero. I think people would accept that because Marrero isn’t hitting, Shaffer is hitting, and people don’t value the strong defense from Marrero and the chance that Shaffer could eventually move to first (which seems to be reflected in the rankings).

The other interesting situation is that the Moskos comparison might be another situation that is limited to the Pirates’ world. If the Padres took Marrero seventh, I don’t think their fans would care as much as Pirates fans. Maybe part of that is because they live in San Diego, and how much would you really care about a baseball draft if you live in San Diego? But while their fans might say “I don’t think Marrero was the best available guy”, I don’t think they would scream “Here we go again!”.

If I’m putting a comparison out there, using only the Pirates’ universe, I’m saying a potential pick of Marrero would be Moskos-lite, just because there’s probably not a Wieters on the board. If I’m just talking about the move without comparisons, I’d say that Marrero doesn’t look to be the best available on the board.

I could see how some would disagree, as it was only three months ago that we were all disappointed that Marrero, a consensus top five guy, wouldn’t fall to the Pirates. It really just depends on how much stock you put in to this season, and whether you think Marrero can hit going forward. I personally think it’s a good pick value-wise, but a risky pick considering his lack of hitting the last two years. And I’m saying that while advocating for a prep outfielder who is no guarantee to add power, and a prep left hander who is no guarantee to add velocity, thus also making their futures less than a guarantee.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost 6-2 to the Marlins. Kristy Robinson looks at Kevin Correia’s lucky start to the year in tonight’s notebook, and some replacement options if the Pirates decide to go another direction.

**Prospect Watch: Tim Alderson returns to the Altoona rotation with decent results.

**Wilbur Miller has a live report on Alderson’s start.

**What Solutions Can the Pirates Make on Offense?

**The Pirates are rumored to be one of eight teams interested in a Taiwanese infielder who projects to get the biggest non-pitcher bonus in the country.

**A lot of draft links as the draft gets closer. Baseball America released their top 100 prospects. Keith Law released his first mock draft. I did a feature on how scouting will be important this year. In the feature, Neal Huntington talks about how the Pirates don’t anticipate going over-slot this year.

**Tomorrow’s schedule has an interesting pitching matchup: Jameson Taillon goes up against former Pirates prospect Chris Young.

I was looking through the leaderboards today, and the results were about what I expected. Those four hitters were dominating almost every offensive category in the minor league system. However, there were a few other players who stood out. Drew Maggi stood out in the areas you’d like to see from a speedy top of the order hitter (stolen bases, walks, on-base percentage). Mel Rojas stood out in hits and triples, although you’d like to see him showing up in the home runs and slugging fields, and it’s not good seeing him in the strikeout area. Stefan Welch appeared in a few categories, although he’s more of an organizational player. Then there’s Jordy Mercer, who appeared in a few categories, which is good to see with Clint Barmes struggling.

Here is a rundown of the top three hitters in the Pirates’ minor league system in each offensive category. The numbers are prior to the games on 5/14.

Hits

1. Alen Hanson (A) – 52

2. Mel Rojas (A+) – 40

3. Jose Osuna (A), Jordy Mercer (AAA) – 39

Doubles

1. Alen Hanson (A) – 14

2. Jose Osuna (A) – 13

3. Matt Curry (AA), Dan Gamache (A+) – 10

Triples

1. Mel Rojas (A+) – 5

2. Alen Hanson (A) – 4

3. Starling Marte (AAA) – 3

Home Runs

1. Gregory Polanco (A) – 7

2. Willy Garcia (A) – 6

3. Alen Hanson (A), Stefan Welch (A+) – 5

Stolen Bases

1. Drew Maggi (A+) – 13

2. Alen Hanson (A) – 12

3. Gregory Polanco (A) – 10

Walks

1. Evan Chambers (A+) – 23

2. Drew Maggi (A+) – 22

3. Robbie Grossman (AA) , Brandon Boggs (AAA) – 20

Strikeouts

1. Gift Ngoepe (A+) – 41

2. Evan Chambers (A+) – 40

3. Brandon Boggs (AAA), Mel Rojas (A+) – 37

Batting Average (100+ ABs)

1. Alen Hanson (A) – .349

2. Gregory Polanco (A) – .304

3. Jose Osuna (A) – .302

On Base Percentage (100+ ABs)

1. Drew Maggi (A+) – .406

2. Alen Hanson (A) – .388

3. Jordy Mercer (AAA) – .375

Slugging Percentage (100+ ABs)

1. Alen Hanson (A) – .597

2. Gregory Polanco (A) – .528

3. Stefan Welch (A+) – .488

Links and Notes

**The Pirates won 3-2 against the Marlins. Kristy Robinson looks at how Brad Lincoln stepped up in his spot start in tonight’s notebook.

**Prospect Watch: A good start for Nick Kingham, and Alen Hanson has three hits.

**Justin Wilson left his start with a groin injury. Nancy Zinni has a recap from the rest of today’s Indianapolis victory.

**The prospect trends from the last week.

**Draft prospects rundown from the last week.

**Jose Tabata gets his swagger back.

**A Pitch F/X preview of the Marlins’ starters.

**The transcript from my weekly prospects chat.

**Kevin Creagh looks at The Altoona Four as a superhero group.

I don’t think the comment is accurate. I know exactly why the theory exists. Part of it is because the moment a player gets on a hot streak, people start asking when that player will be called up. Another part is because people will see aggressive promotions in another organization, and will want to see the same for the Pirates, regardless of whether that sort of promotion would be appropriate.

I think the Pirates are actually aggressive with their promotions. I have the same fault that pretty much every Pirates fan has: my focus is only on this organization. So I could be wrong. But consider some of the recent promotions in the organization.

**They sent 16 year old Luis Heredia straight to the Gulf Coast League. This year he is ticketed for the New York-Penn League, which is a league that is usually well stocked with college hitters.

**On that same note, they constantly send their top prep pitchers to State College for their first full season to go up against those college hitters.

**One level down, the Pirates have had their GCL team loaded with international talent the last few years. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Pirates have had the most international players in the GCL the last few years. They’ve been pretty aggressive promoting guys stateside.

**The Pirates have also been aggressive with international hitters in the lower levels. This year they promoted Alen Hanson, Jose Osuna, Gregory Polanco, Willy Garcia, and Jodaneli Carvajal to West Virginia, basically skipping them past State College. I was talking to an opposing scout earlier in the year, and he was asking me, one by one, where those hitters ended up. After telling him that they all started the year in West Virginia, his response was a shocked “All of them?!” This aggressive promotion to West Virginia isn’t new. They did the same thing with Starling Marte and Ramon Cabrera.

**Last year the Pirates skipped Matt Curry over high-A, sending him to Double-A. That was one of those situations where the line went from “they’re too slow to promote him” to “they’re being too aggressive with Curry”.

**The Pirates have seen a lot of injuries in Bradenton the last few years, leading to half seasons from some of their hitters (Marte, Brock Holt, Tony Sanchez, Jeremy Farrell, Jarek Cunningham). Even with the reduced seasons, all of those guys have been promoted the next year to Altoona.

There needs to be some perspective when looking at the potential promotions. Too often the analysis comes down to “the player is performing well, promote him”. Getting an idea of what other teams are doing is a good thing, as long as you’re not just looking for the one case where another team made an aggressive move.

Take Jameson Taillon, for example. He’s been dominant this year, but it’s only 36.2 innings. Is that enough time for him in high-A? Is it too little? Too much?

By comparison, Shelby Miller threw 53 innings in high-A before making the jump to Double-A. That’s three more six inning starts for Taillon. Jacob Turner moved quickly through low-A, making it to high-A in his first full season. He pitched 61.1 innings in high-A. Casey Kelly threw 46.2 innings in high-A before moving up, and his numbers weren’t nearly as dominant as Taillon’s. Jake Odorizzi threw 78.1 innings in high-A before his mid-season promotion to Double-A last year. And that was his third full season in the pros.

These are just examples I found looking for prep pitchers from the last few drafts. It seems that 36.2 innings is a few starts short of an expected promotion. The Pirates would actually be aggressive promoting Taillon this early. An expected promotion would come around the 50 inning mark, which is three starts away for Taillon. If he’s still dominating in high-A after that point, then a case could be made that the Pirates are slow to promote players.

I’d think that Gerrit Cole would be quicker to move, due to coming out of college. But that’s not really a guarantee. I remembered that Brian Matusz moved quickly, but I was surprised to see that the college left hander spent 66.2 innings in high-A to start his pro career. Alex White pitched 44 innings in high-A to start his career. Drew Pomeranz threw 77 innings in high-A to start his career.

There have been other players who have moved quicker. Mike Leake went right to the majors. Trevor Bauer moved up after three starts. But it’s not unnatural for a top college arm to spend a little bit more time in high-A than the token few starts before making the jump to Double-A. Prior to the season I said I would be surprised if Cole is still in high-A in June. I still feel that way. But that means the Pirates still have some time.

This also extends to Alen Hanson. He’s had a hot start to the year, which started the “when could he move up to Bradenton” questions. Those questions ignore the fact that Hanson was just moved up in an aggressive promotion. He skipped over State College and moved to West Virginia, and he’s only had 145 at-bats at the level. By comparison, Starling Marte had 221 at-bats in low-A before moving up a level. That was still a different scenario. Marte moved up because West Virginia’s season was over, and Lynchburg was playing in the playoffs. If Hanson continues this hitting, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s moved up this year, but I don’t think it will be before July.

Overall the Pirates have some aggressive tendencies when promoting players, especially in the lower levels. They seem to take a bit more time in the upper levels, which is probably a good thing, since those are important jumps. But looking at other examples, it doesn’t seem like the Pirates are slow to promote players in those cases. It just seems like they promote players at a normal pace, which can seem slow if you’re hoping for a lot of aggressive promotions.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates minor league system hit 17 homers last week, which means an $8.50 discount on the Pirates Prospects books. That’s the biggest discount yet, and is only available for one week! Use the code “HOME RUN” on the products page of the site to get your discount.

**The Pirates won 3-2 in extra innings. Game story here.

**Prospect Watch: Alen Hanson and Jose Osuna both homered for West Virginia.

**Daniel McCutchen was placed on the disabled list, and Joel Hanrahan was reinstated from the Bereavement list. I noticed a few people suggesting it was a phantom injury for McCutchen. There’s no incentive at all to do this. McCutchen was only called up to replace Hanrahan. If he would have been optioned to the minors, it would have been totally predicted. He’s already been down enough this year to use an option year. He’s not a Rule 5 pick, so they don’t need to stash him on the roster. And they have to pay him a major league salary while he’s on the major league disabled list. So as odd as the injury sounds (didn’t throw a pitch, injured in batting practice), there’s no reason to assume it’s an injury to keep McCutchen in the majors, because there’s no incentive to do so.

**Prospect Notebook: When Will Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon be called up?

**Live chat tomorrow at 2:00 PM. You’ll be able to submit questions at 8 AM.

Barmes is hitting for a .158/.192/.295 line on the year in 95 at-bats. He wasn’t exactly brought on to be a key contributor to the offense, with his primary value being his defense at shortstop. However, his defense has struggled, and the expectations on offense were much higher than this, near his career .696 OPS levels.

I liked the signing of Barmes for two reasons. One, the Pirates weren’t going to get a big time shortstop through free agency, so I felt they should go with a guy who has strong defense and a decent bat. Barmes was that guy. Second, the Pirates didn’t have any internal options ready to start the year in Pittsburgh. Barmes isn’t playing up to expectations on either side of the ball, and the Pirates now have a guy emerging as a mid-season candidate.

Jordy Mercer extended his hitting streak to 13 games tonight after going 2-for-4 with two walks. The shortstop has been on a hot streak in May, coming in to the game with a .370/.383/.457 line in 46 at-bats this month. That’s pretty much the limits of his hitting this year, as he started off cold, hitting for a .238/.347/.375 line in 80 at-bats in April.

The hitting streak has given Mercer’s value a boost, although the desperation over Barmes, and the hitting streak from Mercer have disguised the fact that Mercer’s May success is mostly an empty average. Prior to tonight he didn’t have a walk this month, after 12 in April. He also hasn’t been hitting for power, with a .087 ISO in May, compared to a .137 ISO in April.

In April, Mercer was drawing walks and hitting for power, but he wasn’t hitting for average. This month he’s hitting for average, but that empty average doesn’t come with walks or power.

I don’t anticipate Mercer will have a problem seeing power return to his game. Last year he had a .146 ISO in Triple-A. He might not draw a ton of walks, but I think there’s room for improvement over his May numbers. So the key for me is whether he can keep up this hot hitting. He might not continue to hit at a lofty .370 pace, but if he can hit for a good average, he’ll look worthy of a call up a month from now, especially if Barmes is still struggling.

I will add this disclaimer. Often when talking about major league players struggling, there’s this idea that guys coming up from Triple-A will be the solution. Just swap out several poor performers from the majors, and bring up several hot hitters in Triple-A. All of the problems will be solved, right? After all, look at the numbers those hitters are putting up. And forget that those numbers came in Triple-A.

This thought process just sets people up for disappointment. On occasion you see players come up and get off to hot starts. But I don’t think I’d count on it with Mercer. He didn’t show success in Altoona until a month in to his second season at the level. His numbers in Indianapolis last year were similar to his numbers this year in April. Based on his history, there’s a good chance that he could struggle after making the jump to the majors, just like he initially struggled in Double-A, and just like he initially struggled in Triple-A.

If Barmes is still struggling, it would make sense to call Mercer up. Why not give him a shot and see if he can actually get off to a hot start? Worst case scenario, he puts up the same performance as Barmes has been putting up. But don’t get caught in the trap thinking that a promotion from Triple-A will bring an automatic upgrade. Because Mercer doesn’t have a history of immediate success at a new level.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates beat the Astros 5-2. Game story here.

**Prospect Watch: Gerrit Cole throws six strong innings, and Robbie Grossman homers.

**Erik Bedard will be pushed back to Wednesday, and Brad Lincoln will take the start on Monday.

**Kristy Robinson takes a look at the power of the Pirates’ bullpen.

**More on how Jeff Larish fits with the club.

There’s no room for Larish in Indianapolis, and it doesn’t make much sense to add a 1B/3B bench bat, considering the make-up of the team. That makes me wonder if another shoe will drop from this deal.

The Pirates need offense. Not only do they need offense in the lineup, but they need offense off the bench. Nate McLouth, Josh Harrison, and Yamaico Navarro are all struggling off the bench. Harrison has a .179 average and a .493 OPS. Navarro has a .207 average and a .604 OPS. McLouth has a .205 average and a .552 OPS.

At the start of the year it made sense to keep Harrison and Navarro on the roster, as Pedro Alvarez was serving in a sort of platoon. Now that Alvarez is getting regular playing time there’s not much of a need for guys like Harrison or Navarro to get playing time on the field. They’re pretty much limited to pinch hitting roles and spot starts, making their bats more important, and their defense less important.

Now that the Pirates are looking more for hitting off the bench, with less of a priority on defense, there’s no need for both Harrison and Navarro. It would make more sense to bring up someone like Matt Hague or Jake Fox. Both players have good bats and can hit for some power, with Fox having the advantage in that department.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the other shoe dropping, with Fox or Hague getting the call to the majors. It doesn’t make sense to add Larish when you’ve got Hague, Fox, and Clement, unless one of those players will make the jump to the majors. It also doesn’t make sense to have both Yamaico Navarro and Josh Harrison in the majors considering the needs of the team. What does make sense is bringing up Hague or Fox, sending Harrison down, and adding Jeff Larish to replace whoever got the call from Triple-A.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost 1-0 to the Astros. Game story here.

**Pirates Acquire Jeff Larish.

**Prospect Watch: Gift Ngoepe hits his fourth homer of the year.

**Pirates Notebook: Alex Presley is working to regain last season’s swing.

**The Pitch F/X preview of the Houston Astros probable starters.

Tonight, Correia gave up three runs on six hits and two walks, with all of his damage coming off of two homers in the sixth inning. After the second homer, I tweeted that this was the excuse to make the switch to Rudy Owens. Or Brad Lincoln, if that’s who you prefer. I’d go with Owens, only because I see their upsides as the same, and Owens fits PNC Park better.

I was met with a few responses asking why I’d remove Correia after a good start. This is kind of funny to me, since I’ve had one Twitter follower getting on my case all week for pointing out the fact that Correia’s numbers have been good. Apparently mentioning that made me sound like I was hyping up Correia, in the middle of an article about how the Pirates should remove Correia from the rotation.

Correia’s numbers have been good this year. That’s just fact. Heading in to tonight he had a 3.38 ERA in 29.1 innings. He saw a slight bump in those numbers, now with a 3.47 ERA in 36.1 innings.

If you want to break that down, Correia has been lucky. He’s not this good of a pitcher. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, with a 3.2 K/9 on the season. To his credit, he doesn’t give up a lot of walks either, with a 2.7 BB/9 this year. He’s limited hits this year, but that’s come from a very unsustainable .208 BABIP. In his career, Correia has a .295 BABIP, which is a normal range for pitchers.

Correia has been lucky, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s put up good numbers so far this season. They might be good because of good luck, but they’re still good. Nothing changes the past. When you start talking about luck, you’re talking about future performances. Correia has had a .214 BABIP this year. That will go up. He’s got a 77.1% strand rate. That will go down. Combine the two and you’ve got more base runners and more runners scoring. The only bright side is that his 16.1% HR/FB ratio is unlucky, and should go down.

Basically Correia is a right handed version of Zach Duke. He’s a 4th or 5th starter on a bad rotation, and a sixth starter or a bullpen option in good rotations. I liked the signing of Correia prior to the 2011 season, but that was coming off a year where the Pirates had one of the worst pitching rotations in the majors. They had a bad rotation, so it made sense to add Correia.

Now the Pirates have a good rotation. They also have three good options who will be under team control for the long haul. Brad Lincoln has five years of control remaining after the 2012 season. Rudy Owens and Jeff Locke have six years of control remaining after the 2012 season. All three could at least match the upside of Correia, and I feel that all three could be better than Correia.

Correia has put up good numbers this year. Tonight was a good start. That all might be due to luck, but it doesn’t change the fact that it happened. But going forward, you can’t rely on that luck. In fact, odds are the luck will run out, and Correia will regress. That’s why I feel the Pirates should use whatever excuse is needed to make the switch to Lincoln, Locke, or Owens. It only makes sense to go with someone who has more upside and who is under team control beyond the 2012 season. I’m not saying get rid of Correia. I think he has value out of the bullpen and as an emergency starter. I’m just saying move him out of the rotation before his regression kicks in, rather than waiting for that start where he sees a normal amount of balls dropping in for hits, and a normal amount of base runners scoring.

Links and Notes

**Don’t forget to join the Draft Street fantasy baseball free roll. It’s a one night fantasy baseball contest that takes place Friday night. The contest is FREE to join, and you compete for part of a $250 prize pool. Plus, you help the site out in the process. CLICK HERE to enter.

**The Pirates lost 4-2 as Stephen Strasburg struck out 13. Game story here.

**Prospect Watch: Jameson Taillon throws six shutout innings in Bradenton’s 16-3 win.

**Daniel McCutchen was called up after Joel Hanrahan was placed on the Bereavement List. McCutchen returns with sharper pitches.

**Erik Bedard is feeling better after exiting Wednesday’s game with back spasms.

**My weekend draft prospects preview, with a look at the probability of the Pirates landing one of my top seven guys, and why Lucas Giolito is my favorite for the pick.

**Baseball America releases their first mock draft.

**Don’t Hold Your Breath on Instant Replay.

“(Instant replay) has been good for us, but I really haven’t seen technology that would make us much better than we are right now. Would we get some more calls right? Sure.”

Apparently the MLB commissioner’s office is full of Pentium II computers running Windows 95 and connecting to the internet using dial up. That’s the only way they wouldn’t have the technology that would make instant replay better. I can sit at home and get a clear replay of what happened in a game, while watching baseball on my phone. Think about that. We have the technology for people to watch live baseball on their phones in the middle of a grocery store, but baseball is saying they don’t have the technology to expand instant replay?

As for the second part, Torre points out that they’d get more calls right. That’s all the reason you need to expand replay. And if you’re admitting that you’re getting more calls right, then you’re also kind of saying that you could get better than where you are right now.

It’s hard to imagine that every sports league has instant replay, but MLB is suggesting that they don’t have the technology to go the same route. Of course, this paragraph by Morosi explains it all.

The key, Torre said, is to “make the game better without dragging it on.” So, accuracy isn’t Torre’s only concern. It’s efficiency, too.

And there it is. Baseball would rather battle the misconception that the game is slow, rather than get the calls right. The concept of the game being slow never made sense, as the game is actually faster than the average football game. It’s rare for a football game to go under three hours. It’s rare for a baseball game to go over three hours. The people who don’t watch baseball because they think it is slow are pretty much just not watching because they don’t like baseball. So rather than appeasing the people who do watch baseball, MLB is sacrificing the accuracy of the game to try and draw in those people who don’t watch the game because they feel that two and a half hours of baseball is slow, while three and a half hours of football is fast.

He struggles with his control, but he’s a dominant pitcher, with a career 11.5 K/9 and a 6.4 hit/9 ratio in the majors. He throws a 92-94 MPH fastball and a high-70s curve. The Angels have seen some struggles in their bullpen, and could now be looking at Frieri as a short term closer option with Scott Downs injured.

To get Frieri, Los Angeles gave up infielder Alexi Amarista and right hander Donn Roach. Amarista came in to the year ranked the 19th best prospect in the Angels’ system by Baseball America. He seems more like a utility infielder, similar to Josh Harrison.

Roach was rated the number 23 prospect in the system. He moved to high-A at the age of 22, and was having good numbers this year prior to the deal, with a 2.16 ERA in 41.2 innings, along with a 29:3 K/BB ratio in the very hitter friendly California League. He profiles as a back of the rotation starter or a middle reliever who gets a lot of ground balls.

I’ve talked a lot about the value of relief pitchers, noting the high prices that are paid to closers, but also noting how you can get closers for much cheaper if you just invest in a guy who hasn’t established himself as a closer. Frieri has five years of control remaining, with 2012 counting as one of those years. His trade value, based on his WAR from 2011, was $7.9 M. The Angels got a big value by only giving up $2.6 M in prospect value, dealing two Grade-C relievers.

Part of me feels that any price paid for a reliever is too expensive. Frieri has some dominant numbers and some control issues. The Pirates added Chris Resop for free in 2010. He’s combined for a 9.9 K/9 and a 4.1 BB/9 ever since. They added Jason Grilli for free last year. He’s posted an 11.7 K/9 and a 4.1 BB/9 ratio. I’d say Grilli is more comparable to Frieri as far as stuff goes, as Grilli has also limited hits, while Resop has given up close to a hit per inning. The point is that the Angels gave up two top-30 prospects for a guy, while the Pirates added two similar valued guys for free over the last two years. That’s just an example with the Pirates. I’m sure I could find examples from every other team of adding cheap relievers.

The other part of me feels that the Angels have made an investment. If Frieri works out as a closer, his value goes up. At that point, the Angels would be able to get much more in return for him than they paid. It’s kind of like the trade that brought Joel Hanrahan to the Pirates. Hanrahan wasn’t the main part in the deal. In fact, at the time he was seen as the fourth best player in the deal. Looking back, even though Lastings Milledge didn’t work out, I’d still make that deal, as the Pirates could get more for Hanrahan than Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett.

When talking about the relief pitcher market, there is an extra emphasis on the word “market”. It’s all about buying low and selling high. If the relief pitcher market was the stock market, teams that go out and spend $50 M on a guy like Jonathan Papelbon are the same as people who buy Apple stock right now. You’re not going to get rich buying Apple now, just like you’re not going to see a big return on investment spending a ton of money on a top closer. You wanted to buy Apple stock in 2005, just like you wanted to find Papelbon in 2005. Teams are better off investing in future closers, hoping to find the next Papelbon. That’s where this metaphor ends. It’s much easier to find a good closer than it is to find the next Apple stock. And that’s why I’ll never understand why teams pay closers eight figure salaries, or deal top prospects in trades for them.