The word collapse suggests that the team has collapsed, or that they’re in the process of collapsing, which suggests that a collapse is inevitable. The truth is that the team hasn’t collapsed. They might be in the process of collapsing, but there’s still enough time for them to get back on track and win. In all of the losing, they’re still within reach of the playoffs. Despite the recent losing, there has also been losing from St. Louis and Los Angeles. No one is running away with the second wild card spot. Yet we don’t hear about the Cardinals or Dodgers collapsing.

There’s probably not a lot of optimism that the Pirates can turn things around, and that’s certainly understandable after being swept by the Cubs and losing against the Reds tonight. The fact is that this is a team that quickly goes from hot-to-cold, and cold-to-hot. It’s not out of the question for them to go on a hot streak out of nowhere.

That brings up another issue, and my bigger problem with the term “collapse”. I’ve been thinking about something the last few days: Is “collapse” the correct term? Collapse looks at the team as a contender that shouldn’t have fallen like the Pirates have since the beginning of August. Are the Pirates that contender, disappointingly falling in the final months of the season? Or are they a pretender that only got this high because of two unlikely months in the middle of the season?

The term “collapse” suggests that the Pirates were contenders, and that their recent stretch is out of the ordinary. But let’s look at the breakdown of the won/loss records this season.

April/May: 25-25

June/July: 34-19

August/September: 13-24

The first two months of the season the team was at .500. Then they took off in June and July and everyone thought they were contenders. It’s hard to think otherwise when the team enters August with a 59-44 record, 15 games above .500, and three games back from the division lead. They followed that up with a 13-24 stretch since the start of August.

Right now we’re still stuck on August 1st. That’s how we are viewing the team. This isn’t a team that is 72-68 on the season. This is a team that was 59-44 and is collapsing. That might not be the correct way to look at things.

Looking at this from a larger perspective, this team looks closer to a .500 team. They played .500 ball the first two months of the season. They had two huge months in June and July. Now they’re in the process of two horrible months to end the year. That split is due to the fact that this team is very streaky. As I mentioned above, they quickly go from hot-to-cold, and cold-to-hot. That’s not what contenders do. Contenders have cold streaks, but they usually bounce out of them quickly, and usually stay consistent all year.

Nothing about this year has been consistent for the Pirates. They’ve gone from a .500 team that was lucky to be at .500, to one of the best teams in baseball over a two month stretch, to one of the worst teams in baseball since the start of August. It’s hard to be a contender when you’re prone to those wild swings in performance, especially when the swings for the worse can last for over a month.

Collapse might not be the best term to describe what the Pirates are currently doing. Collapse suggests they’re contenders who are falling from a place they should be. Looking at the season from where we are now, the correct term might be “Regressing”. That suggests that the Pirates are falling to a place they should be. They’re not as bad as they’ve been playing lately, but the fact that they’ve been playing this bad tells us they weren’t as good as June/July. They’re probably in the middle of that, which puts them close to a .500 team.

That’s probably the best way to describe this team. They’re a .500 team. The difference between a .500 team and a contender isn’t huge. If the Pirates are a .500 team, it’s good progress from where they were last year. It’s probably disappointing to think that way, considering we spent most of the summer thinking of them as contenders. Even if it’s disappointing, the team is moving in the right direction, which should be encouraging. What should be disappointing is that they don’t appear to be there just yet. They don’t look like a contender right now. They don’t look like they’re collapsing. They look like they’re regressing to a .500 club.

Links and Notes

**Win a Free Pair of Pittsburgh Pirates Headphones From BiGR AUDIO.

**The Pirates lost to the Reds 4-3.

**Pirates Notebook: Missed Opportunities Hurt Bucs in Extras.

**Pirates Recall Chase d’Arnaud, Bryan Morris; DFA Evan Meek.

**Prospect Notebook: Josh Bell Might Not Play Until Spring Training.

**Pirates Need to Put a Foot Down on Current Struggles.

**State College Spikes 2012 Season Recap: Top Prospects.

**State College Spikes 2012 Season Recap: Hitters.

**State College Spikes 2012 Season Recap: Pitchers.

To lead off the inning, Jeff Locke stepped to the plate. He laced a single down the third base line, giving the Pirates a gift runner at first base with the top of the order coming up.

The response? Brock Holt came up attempting a bunt. Holt got in to a two strike count, then hit a slow chopper to first base, beating out the throw after the Cubs’ first baseman looked to second for the force out. Another gift runner. The Pirates now had runners at first and second with no outs.

The response? Starling Marte came up attempting a bunt. Just like Brock Holt, Marte got in to a two strike count. Marte then proceeded to strike out.

First of all, each situation was predictable, to the point where the Cubs were playing for the bunt. That led to the need to lay down the perfect bunt, which led to some foul bunts down the line and the eventual two strike counts.

Second, you were gifted two base runners. Why start giving away outs? Brock Holt has been hitting well since his call up? Why take the bat out of his hand? Starling Marte hasn’t been as hot lately, but you’re better off letting him hit away, especially with Andrew McCutchen on deck. If Marte successfully lays the bunt down, you’ve got runners at second and third with one out. That takes the bat out of the hands of your best hitter, as the Cubs would just walk him (which they did in the seventh after Brock Holt’s triple). Then you’ve got Garrett Jones against a left-hander, with a pretty good chance that they feed him a steady diet of breaking stuff, hoping he rolls over one for a double play.

The bigger picture is that the Pirates shouldn’t be playing small ball. The idea behind small ball is that you can manufacture runs from a weak offense. But a small ball strategy only works if you also have an excellent pitching staff. The pitching staff lately has been far from excellent. Then there’s the bigger issue: the Pirates are horrible at small ball. They can’t steal bases, and they can’t lay down a bunt on a consistent basis. A lot of that probably has to do with their strategy being so predictable.

It’s almost as if the Pirates don’t need a manager. Their strategy in all aspects is predictable. Runner at first and less than two outs? Bunt. Game entering the 8th inning? Bring on the 8th inning guy. Game entering the 9th inning? Bring on Joel Hanrahan. Unless it’s a tie game on the road. Then wait until there’s a lead, if there ever is a lead. Need a pinch hitter on deck with two outs in the event that Jeff Clement reaches? Call on Jordy Mercer. Have a situation where Clement actually reaches and Mercer would get an at-bat? Send up Josh Harrison instead.

The Marte bunt might not have mattered in the long run, as Jason Grilli came on and gave up two runs in the eighth. But the Pirates had a situation where they were given runners at first and second with no outs. They might not be guaranteed of a big inning. But playing small ball guarantees their upside will only be a small inning. So even if they execute, the Grilli inning is going to hurt them, because they’re settling for two runs, rather than playing big with their best hitters due up. That’s a strategy the Pirates can’t afford to go with. They need to play for as many runs as possible. They can’t afford to give away outs, especially with their top hitters due up. They can’t afford to potentially take the bat out of Andrew McCutchen’s hands.

I’m not a big believer that a manager can significantly help a team. But I do think a manager can hurt a team with poor decisions. Small ball isn’t working for the Pirates. And with the small ball strategy being so predictable, there’s little chance that it could ever work, even if the Pirates executed it perfectly. Clint Hurdle is only hurting the Pirates by continuing with this predictable small ball strategy.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost to the Cubs 4-2.

**Pirates Notebook: Evolution of Jeff Locke; Reinforcements on the Horizon.

**State College Spikes 2012 Season Recap: Top Prospects.

**State College Spikes 2012 Season Recap: Hitters.

**State College Spikes 2012 Season Recap: Pitchers.

**Chad Qualls Activated From the Disabled List.

I’ve got to be honest here. I didn’t watch much of the last two games. On Friday I was driving down to Raleigh to visit some friends. When I checked the score, the game looked out of reach, and that was before the Cubs had 12 runs. My first thought after seeing the one hit the Pirates had was “Jeff Samardzija must be on the mound”. My thought when I saw it was Travis Wood on the mound was “Who the hell is Travis Wood?”.

Today, Samardzija was on the mound, and while he didn’t take a one hitter in to the ninth inning, he did pitch a complete game to take the series from the Pirates.

I didn’t watch much of either game, which gives me a different perspective. I checked Twitter after each game, and the general feeling (especially after losing two in a row) was doom and gloom. There were questions whether the Pirates could even finish above .500 (they’d have to lose two out of every three games the rest of the year).

That attitude is expected, especially after watching a 12-2 loss on Friday, followed by a second loss against one of the worst teams in the league. The loss today was as acceptable as any loss could be. Even a bad team can win with their best pitcher on the mound. But the loss on Friday, with Travis Wood on the mound and the guy supposed to be your ace starting, isn’t acceptable.

Taking a step back (which is easy to do if you didn’t watch the games and experience the misery), they’re just two losses. The St. Louis Cardinals also lost the last two (actually, they lost the last three). The Pirates remain 1.5 games back from the Cardinals, and half a game back from the Dodgers. They’re still in the race.

The analysis about the Pirates right now is going to be focused too much on the last two games, or the recent stretch. That’s not to say that the recent stretch has been good. It’s been bad. It hasn’t been like a contender should play. But at the same time, the Cardinals and the Dodgers are also struggling. The Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten games. The Cardinals are 3-7, and the Dodgers are 5-5.

As I mentioned a week ago, the Pirates haven’t been hurt by their struggles, mostly because St. Louis and Los Angeles are also struggling. But eventually one team is going to break free. That might be St. Louis. It might be Los Angeles. It might even be Milwaukee or Arizona if the three leading teams continue their struggles. We hope it would be the Pirates. They’ve got the schedule to do it, which might be the most disappointing thing about their recent play. It’s a week since I wrote the article linked above, and the Pirates haven’t started playing like contenders yet. But they’ve been fortunate as the Cardinals and Dodgers haven’t played like contenders either. This won’t last the entire season.

The Pirates can do this. They’re slumping now, but the idea that this slump will continue the rest of the month is a bit ridiculous. Stepping back, it’s two losses in a row. That’s not good, but it’s not unheard of. One of those losses was embarrassing, but it still only counts as one loss.

A lot of what leads to the doom and gloom is that it’s the Pirates. They’ve lost 19 years in a row, so they’ll lose this year. They came close in 1997, but fell short of a winning season, and fell out of the race late. Last year they were in first place in July, then had a horrible finish to the season. All of those things happened to the Pirates in the past, so they’re absolutely going to happen again, right?

Not necessarily. That’s not how baseball works. It’s an easy way of thinking. The Pirates fell apart last year, and they’re struggling now, so this is just the start of that collapse again. But that’s lazy thinking. St. Louis and Los Angeles are also struggling, and no one is making the same claims about them. It’s a “grass is greener” view. The feeling isn’t that all three teams are struggling. The feeling seems to be that the Pirates are blowing their opportunity while the other teams are struggling, as if the Pirates can’t keep up if/when the Cardinals and Dodgers break out of their slumps. But the truth is that all three teams are close in record, and all three teams are struggling at the same time. The grass isn’t greener on the other side. It’s the exact same.

It would be great for the Pirates to be winning while the other teams are struggling. But the lack of winning right now doesn’t mean the Pirates are out of it, or hurting their chances. They’re still 1.5 games out. A week ago they were 1.5 games out. A week before that they were one game back. A week before that they were one game up. A week before that they were 1.5 games up.

Look at this closely and base your opinions on the most recent games, and the outlook doesn’t look that great. But step back and look at the overall records and the Pirates and Cardinals have been separated by two games or under for the majority of the last month. To me that looks like a playoff race. And it just so happens that all three teams are slumping at the same time at the end of the season. But the race is still going on, and there’s no reason to think the Pirates are any less likely to contend than the Cardinals or the Dodgers.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost to the Cubs 4-3.

**Pirates Notebook: McDonald Showing Progress; Rotation Set for Cincinnati.

**Prospect Watch: Indianapolis Eliminated.

**9th Inning Rally Falls Short, And Indians Are Done For 2012.

**Oscar Tejeda Outrighted to Altoona.

Remember when the only thing people focused on was breaking the losing streak? It reached irrational levels, to the point where people wanted to make trades just to get to 82 wins. The Pirates only need to go 10-16 over their remaining games to finish above .500. And that seems to be an afterthought.

Coming in to the year, the expectations were on lesser “goals”. I use that word loosely because improving over a previous year’s record or finishing over .500 aren’t goals. They’re just checkpoints on the way to the real goal: contending. Most Pirates fans didn’t expect the team to contend until top prospects like Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon arrived. But now they are contenders, maybe a year earlier than expected, and the expectations have changed.

The only thing Pirates fans are focused on right now is the playoff race (well, a playoff race and the home attendance). And that’s how it should be. That’s how it should have been all along. The goal was always to be a contender. I think Pirates fans were so beaten down by the constant losing that it made it seem impossible for the team to ever compete again.

There still may be some hesitation to think that the team can contend in future years — a feeling that this year is a fluke and the only real shot the team has to contend. But I think that’s just left over feelings that everything will go wrong for the Pirates. I can’t imagine this is their best chance to contend. Not when Cole and Taillon will arrive in the next few years with most of the key players on this team still around. Not once Starling Marte gets more experience under his belt. Not with other prospects arriving, and other younger players continuing to progress. There’s a reason we didn’t expect the team to contend this soon. We were counting on all of those aspects for the team to contend. Their chances in future years will only improve.

For this year, they’re definitely still in it. A series win over the Astros shouldn’t be celebrated. It should be expected. And following the series the Pirates are 1.5 games back from the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and tied with the Dodgers. And the best part is we can ignore whether the team will improve, and we can ignore the losing streak, and just focus on what matters: a playoff race.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates beat the Astros 6-3.

**Pirates Notebook: Pirates Match 2011 Win Total; Walker Getting Close to Return.

**Prospect Watch: Heredia Finishes Strong; Indy and DSL Lose Playoff Games

**Heredia Finishes Season on a High Note; Features a New Curveball.

**Holt’s Whirlwind Season Gives Him Opportunity to Finish in the Bigs.

**Minor League Schedule: 9/6/12.

Brock Holt(!) is off to a great start to his pro career, hitting for a .462/.500/.538 line in 14 plate appearances after tonight’s four-hit game. And he’s played shortstop in the past, even though he’s better suited defensively for second base. A guy off to a hot start at the plate who has played shortstop in the past usually leads to the “can he play shortstop in the majors” question.

We’ll get back to whether Holt can play shortstop in a second. First, let’s look at two other recent candidates for the shortstop position.

The first was Josh Harrison. He went on a ten-game hitting streak in late-May, and played a few games at short during that time period. His hitting streak brought his season OPS up to .774, which combined with the horrible offense from Clint Barmes, led to “Can Harrison play short” questions. Harrison has since dropped to a .649 OPS on the season.

Next was Drew Sutton. In his first 14 games with the Pirates, Sutton put up a .321 average and a .905 OPS.  He had played shortstop in the past, with seven games coming in Triple-A in 2011. However, he isn’t good defensively at the position, which is why he’s never been a regular there. But the combination of his offense and the still horrible offense from Clint Barmes led to “Can Sutton play short” questions.

And now we have Brock Holt, only after a quick tangent to the “Why isn’t Jordy Mercer getting any playing time at short” question. If there’s anything we should have learned from Harrison and Sutton, it’s that we should only give so much credit to small sample sizes.

The common theme in all of this is that Clint Barmes has been horrible offensively this year, which is making Pirates fans desperate for any solution that could field the position and do much better than Barmes at the plate. But don’t underestimate the impact of defense at short. It’s the hardest position to field, and it’s the most important defensive position in the infield, which is critical for the Pirates with all of their ground ball pitchers.

Barmes has been good defensively this year, which shouldn’t be overlooked. But his offense has been so horrible that it negates the value of his defense. He currently has a 17.5 UZR/150, which leads all major league qualifying shortstops. However, his offense makes him an 0.8 WAR player this year. He’s basically an expensive version of Brendan Ryan: all glove and no bat, while making about $4 M more per year.

Barmes is definitely replaceable. But you have to focus on the total package. You can’t just upgrade the offense and overlook the defense. There has to be some balance.

In Holt’s case, he’s not strong defensively. He lacks the range needed to be an asset defensively at shortstop. He could make up for that on offense. But we have to keep our expectations realistic there. Is Holt going to continue hitting the way he’s been hitting in his first four games? No. How far will he fall? I’d point to his minor league numbers as his ceiling. That’s a .317 average with an .808 OPS, and most of that coming from walks, rather than power. But that’s the best case scenario.

Holt doesn’t hit for much power. We’ve seen that so far, with five of his six hits going for singles. Even in his great campaign in Indianapolis he had a .105 ISO. He’s walking 7.1% of the time so far in the majors, and striking out 28.6% of the time. Most of his hits being singles, a high strikeout rate, and an average walk rate doesn’t usually lead to a great deal of success. Then again, it’s only 14 plate appearances.

I like Holt. He was ranked the number 19 prospect in the system in our rankings heading in to 2011. He dropped to number 32 this year, mostly due to his lack of power and drop in average in Double-A. This year he’s been hitting more like his 2010 season: still with no power, but hitting for a high average. That’s his ticket to being a starter. I have his upside as a utility player, not because I think it’s impossible for him to be a high average guy, but because I think it’s improbable. Most players don’t carry their numbers from the minors to the majors, especially if they lack power. So the odds of Holt hitting for his career minor league numbers in the majors are slim.

Defensively he doesn’t have the skills to provide value at short. He could make up for that offensively, but it would require him to hit closer to his minor league numbers.

Now it’s not fair to expect Holt to hit for an .800 OPS. Only two shortstops out of the 21 who qualify innings-wise at the position this year have an .800 OPS or better.  Only 11 of those 21 have an OPS over .700. Out of all of those shortstops with poor UZR/150 ratings (anything under 4.0, since that’s the average), only one has less than a .700 OPS. That’s Rafael Furcal, who has a .671 OPS, a -10.9 UZR/150, and a 1.1 WAR, making him worth 0.3 wins more than Barmes.

In order to be a worthwhile upgrade (we’ll judge that as one full win), Holt would have to put up something close to a .293/.333/.390 line. I took that line from Alcides Escobar, but I want to stress that this is in no way a comparison to Escobar. It’s just a look at the numbers and the values associated with those numbers. That’s certainly possible for Holt, but I think that’s closer to his upside offensively in the majors. It’s definitely not a guarantee.

Keep in mind that we’re also talking about one win over the course of a season, and we’re talking about it in September. That means we’re ultimately talking about less than 0.2 wins for the remainder of the year if Holt can play a win better than Barmes. That’s not a reason to avoid making a move. It’s just pointing out that Holt isn’t going to drastically change the team’s outcome. Also, to his credit, Barmes has put up a .650 OPS since the start of August. That, combined with his defense, isn’t that bad. Over a full season that would make him close to a two win player. But we’ve seen him struggle far more often this season, so it would be understandable to be skeptic about those numbers continuing throughout September.

The better plan with Holt is to get him regular time in the majors as long as he’s hitting. Use him at second base until Walker comes back. When Walker comes back, give him the occasional start at second or short, plus pinch-hitting duties. If he remains ridiculously hot, find a place for him in the lineup until that stops. Then, when the season is over, focus on his defense at short over the off-season. Try to get him to improve at short, enough to where he’d have a good chance of being a one win improvement or more over Barmes next season, throughout the entire season.

I don’t believe Holt’s upside is a starting shortstop. I think it’s more likely that he becomes a utility player. But that doesn’t mean the Pirates shouldn’t give him the opportunity. I just wouldn’t get my hopes up, especially when those hopes are largely based on a four game sample.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates beat the Astros 6-2.

**Pirates Notebook: Holt, McCutchen Pick Up Four-Hit Nights.

**Injury Updates: Starling Marte, Chad Qualls, Neil Walker, Travis Snider.

**Prospect Watch: Glasnow Impressive in SC Debut; DSL One Win Away.

**Tyler Glasnow Hits 96 MPH in State College Spikes Debut.

**GCL Pirates 2012 Season Recap: Top Prospects.

**GCL Pirates 2012 Season Recap: Pitchers.

**GCL Pirates 2012 Season Recap: Hitters.

**Pirates Sign 21st Round Pick Jordan Steranka.

**Starling Marte to Rehab in State College and Indianapolis.

**Minor League Schedule: 9/5/12.

Indianapolis finished their regular season today, and will go on to the International League playoffs, which start on Wednesday. There won’t be many “prospects” playing in those games. The Pirates have raided the Indians, leaving them with a lineup that includes players like Anderson Hernandez, Hector Luna, Dallas McPherson, Brandon Boggs, and Jeff Larish.  The main guys to watch are the guys who were recently promoted to Triple-A: Gerrit Cole, Matt Curry, and Ramon Cabrera. Chase d’Arnaud and Matt Hague are the only prospects left from the 40-man roster on the hitting side. Bryan Morris was inexplicably left in Triple-A, despite being out of options next year (in other words, now is the time to see what they have in him). The other top prospect at the level is Tony Sanchez, who currently has a broken toe.

For the hardcore prospect followers, the DSL Championship round is taking place this week. The Pirates are currently tied 1-1 with the Angels, with game three taking place tomorrow.

I don’t know why the New York-Penn League will be finishing their season on Wednesday, but that’s the case this year. The final two games in State College will feature some good pitchers. Tyler Glasnow was promoted today from the GCL and will make his State College debut tomorrow. Luis Heredia will make his final start of the year in the season finale on Wednesday. John Eshleman will have coverage of both games for the site.

We will start wrapping up the minor league seasons with three-part recaps for every team. The first of those recaps will start tomorrow, profiling the GCL Pirates. From there we will move on to West Virginia, Bradenton, Altoona, and then the other teams as they finish their respective seasons.

The “Prospect Watch” and “Minor League Schedule” features will still run until there are no more games. From there we will take a few weeks off from minor league coverage — and hopefully we’ll have some meaningful major league games to focus on during that stretch — until the Fall Instructional Leagues begin at the end of the month.

I’d just like to take this moment to thank everyone for reading the site this year. We’re already well beyond last year’s traffic totals, and it’s only the beginning of September. This is the fourth year that the site has been running. When I started it, I never dreamed it would get to this point. In fact, I didn’t even think this point was possible at all. The support shown to the site over the years has been truly overwhelming, and is greatly appreciated. I’m already working on making next year even better.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost to the Astros 5-1.

**Pirates Notebook: Locke Better Than Line; Pirates Keeping it One Day at a Time.

**Prospect Watch: Von Rosenberg Throws Complete Game; Crazy Game in Indy.

**Indians Win Season Finale; Larish Plays 8 Positions, and Reliever Diaz Steals Third.

**Jeff Clement Selected; Oscar Tejeda Designated for Assignment.

**Minor League Schedule: 9/4/12.

The Pirates have been slumping lately, losing to teams that contenders should be beating. They were just swept by Milwaukee in a three game series, one week after losing two of three to the Brewers. They were swept by the Padres last month in one series, and lost two of three in the other series. Those aren’t the results you’d expect from a contender.

The good news is that other teams in the Wild Card hunt are also slumping. The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last ten games, keeping the Pirates 1.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot. The Dodgers are 5-5 in their last ten games, putting them one game ahead of the Pirates in the race. The race for that second Wild Card spot is still a three team race, and fortunately for the Pirates, the other two teams are slumping at the same time, which keeps the Pirates in the race.

After every big loss, you typically see two types of reactions from Pirates fans. The first reaction is that the season is over. The opposite reaction is to mock the crowd jumping the gun by saying the season is over.

I usually find myself in that second crowd, especially when the “season is over” calls come earlier in the season. And while the “season is over” claim might still be a little dramatic, the underlying message carries a bit more weight this late in the season. That message is that if the Pirates keep playing like this, their season will be over.

The season isn’t over by a long shot. Not with the Pirates one and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot. Not with 12 games total against the Cubs and Astros, plus four games against the Mets, and three more at home against Milwaukee. That’s 19 games where the Pirates should have a huge advantage down the stretch.

The Pirates didn’t capitalize on those advantages in August. But that doesn’t mean they won’t in September. Every team has slumps, even contending teams. And contending teams go through stretches where they lose to teams they should be able to beat. The Pirates aren’t alone in this department. But contending teams also minimize that damage. The Pirates have lost some games they should have won the last few weeks. They should have been 5-1 against San Diego, not 1-5. They should have taken at least three games from Milwaukee, instead of one.

They didn’t do either of those things. And yet they’re still in the race, with an easy schedule coming up. They didn’t take advantage of that easy schedule, but it hasn’t cost them the race yet. Going forward, it will cost them the race if they do the same act in September. The Cardinals and Dodgers aren’t going to slump forever. Maybe one of them will struggle, but not both. The Pirates can’t pin their hopes of contending on other teams performing poorly. They can’t back in to the post-season. They’ve got an easy schedule coming up. They had an easy schedule last month, and didn’t take advantage. Now they need to take advantage. Contending teams can have a bad stretch, even if that comes against bad teams. But a “bad stretch” doesn’t span two months. As contenders, the Pirates need to step up and beat the teams like the Cubs, Astros, and even the Brewers.

The season isn’t over yet. But now is the time for the Pirates to start playing like contenders. And a contender wouldn’t have any problems with the upcoming schedule that is in front of the Pirates.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost to the Brewers 12-8.

**Pirates Notebook: Home Runs Hurt McDonald; Holt Gets First Major League Start.

**Prospect Watch: Curry and Cabrera Make First Starts in Indianapolis.

**Indians Slug Out 16 Hits As Irwin Takes His 3rd Win.

**Ramon Cabrera Promoted to Indianapolis.

**Minor League Schedule: 9/3/12.

Taillon handled his starts at the next level very well. In his three appearances he combined for a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings, with an 18:1 K/BB ratio, and just a .183 BAA. Those are the numbers you’d expect to see from a top pitching prospect like Taillon.

Cole got off to a rough start in his first appearance in Triple-A. He gave up three runs on four hits in the first inning, then settled down to pitch five shutout innings, giving up two hits and striking out six during those innings. He didn’t see the walk issues that led to ten walks in the final two starts with Altoona, instead giving up one walk in six innings tonight.

Neither player has spent a significant amount of time at his new level, so while the results have been good, they come with the “Small Sample Size” disclaimer. Both players are expected to return to their current levels to start the 2013 season, with Cole going to Triple-A, and Taillon going to Double-A. Getting their feet wet for a few starts at the end of the season should help that progression going in to next season.

The big question with each player is whether they can make it to the majors next year.

That question is more for Taillon than it is for Cole. Cole will be starting off in Triple-A. So far this year at each level he’s struggled for a few starts, then hit his stride and pitched like the first overall pick in a draft would pitch. He’s got a great arsenal, with three plus pitches and two above-average offerings to add to his fastball, slider, and changeup trio. With Cole, it’s not a question of “if” he will be up next year, but “when” he will be up. I wouldn’t expect him to open the season with the team. He probably won’t be up in the first few weeks of the season, as the Pirates could get an extra year of service time keeping him down a few weeks. Depending on how well he does out of the gate, and how well the rest of the rotation does, I could see him coming up before the Super Two date. For that to happen, he’d have to be dominating from the start of the year, and there would have to be an obvious need in the rotation in late-April or May.

If you would have asked me back in June whether Taillon would make it next year, my answer probably would have been different from now. In the last month, Taillon has gained confidence in his pitches, has learned when to throw each pitch, and in the process has become more of a pitcher than a thrower. He’s also reintroduced a two-seam fastball, which should bring more ground balls, and add another weapon to his plus fastball, plus curve, and developing changeup, which also might be a plus pitch one day.

All of this led to Taillon’s success in Double-A. The fastball was down in the zone, and located well. The curve was sharp, getting a lot of strikeouts. He didn’t use the changeup as much, but feels comfortable enough to incorporate it in to the game plan, throwing it about ten times per start in Double-A. Most importantly, he was actually dominating, with an 18:1 K/BB ratio in 17 innings, which was a result of good fastball command and his plus curveball.

If Taillon carries this over to next season, I could see him moving quickly through the upper levels. He already has some experience in Double-A, thanks to the late promotion. His numbers weren’t a fluke, and the pitcher that was struggling in June and July in Bradenton wasn’t present in Altoona. He’s still young, so there are some concerns that he might revert back to not trusting his stuff, and throwing rather than pitching. But he’s also smart and mature, which gives a good chance that he’ll continue to move in the right direction. If he does keep moving in the right direction with his development, he might not be long for Double-A. He’s got the stuff to have success at Triple-A without any major adjustments, so there’s a chance he could move quickly through that level and arrive before the end of the season.

One year from today we could be seeing both Cole and Taillon in the major league rotation. Neither of them are ready right now, but they’re both close enough that 2013 could be realistic for each player.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost to the Brewers 3-2. Not a good thing to lose the first two games on the road against Milwaukee when Yovani Gallardo is pitching in game three.

**Pirates Notebook: Burnett Bounces Back After Rough August; Locke Moves In Rotation.

**The Pirates will have Kevin Correia start on Wednesday. The better move would be going with Kyle McPherson. Or Chris Leroux. Or even Justin Wilson. Correia would be the ninth option in the majors for me right now. Seems like another example of the Pirates going with the “safe” choice of an established player, rather than a prospect who comes with risk, but could be better than the established option.

**Prospect Watch: Cole Recovers From Rough First Inning; Herrera Homers.

**Cole Wins AAA Debut As Indians Win Last Home Game.

**Minor Moves: Cole Officially Promoted; Restocking Indianapolis.

**Pirates Recall Fryer, Locke, Wilson; Selected Holt, Leroux From Triple-A.

**Minor League Schedule: 9/2/12.

Chris Leroux - We saw a lot of Leroux last year in the majors. He missed a lot of time this year with an injury, and was eventually outrighted to Indianapolis. It was surprising that he cleared waivers, considering his success in the majors last year. Over the off-season he worked in the international winter leagues as a starting pitcher, with the main focus for the assignment set on improving his secondary pitches. After being outrighted to Triple-A, he requested to be a starter, this time to add value in the role. As a starter he’s been getting ahead in the count with his two-seam fastball, and he throws his slider as a strikeout pitch. He could get some consideration for a spot start in Pittsburgh, but as a reliever he probably won’t need much more than the fastball/slider combo.

Jeff Locke - We saw Locke last September, but the version this year is a totally different pitcher. One big difference is experience. Locke had just five starts in Triple-A before his promotion last year. A bigger difference is his delivery. Locke added a new turn to his delivery, which has given him better command of his pitches. He gets the “soft-tossing lefty” tag, but that doesn’t really fit. He cn throw his fastball 90-93 MPH, and pairs that with a nice curve and changeup. He doesn’t have a plus pitch in his arsenal, but he has great command of all of his pitches, especially now with the new turn in his delivery. That increases his effectiveness, and allows him to potentially be a middle of the rotation starter. His numbers will only benefit as a left hander in PNC.

Justin Wilson - Wilson has some of the best stuff in the organization, but struggles with his control. As a starter he usually sits in the 93-95 MPH range, and he’s been clocked higher than that in the past in relief. In his one appearance this year he was working low-90s out of the stretch. The control has been a big issue throughout his career. He tried to reduce the walks by going to more of an overhead delivery this year. That worked for a while, but he’s seen the walks come back toward the end of the year. He has a nice curveball, which paired with his fastball will make him a talented left-hander out of the bullpen. Long-term you’d like to see him get a shot as a starter, since his control issues aren’t solved with a move to the pen. He can be boom or bust in either role, and when he’s on his game, he looks like an ace.

Brock Holt - Holt has been one of the bigger surprises this year. He returned to Double-A to start the year, mostly because he was blocked in Triple-A by Chase d’Arnaud and Jordy Mercer. He hit for a .322/.389/.432 line in 382 at-bats, showing some improvement over his 2011 numbers at the level. Since moving up to Triple-A, he’s been on fire. Holt has hit for a .432/.476/.537 line in 95 at-bats, and recently had four straight games with three hits per game. He can play shortstop, but he doesn’t have the defense to start at the position. He’s better defensively at second base, but he might not have the bat to be an every day starter. He’s obviously opened some eyes with his hitting in Indianapolis, but he hasn’t hit for a lot of power. Holt has a lot of speed, so he’d have value as a top of the order guy if he could hit for average and get on base in the majors. I wouldn’t expect anything close to his Triple-A numbers though, as his career numbers are a better bet for his offensive upside.

Eric Fryer - The Pirates will need a third catcher, and Fryer will fill that role. He might not see a lot of playing time, but his presence should allow them to use Michael McKenry as a pinch hitter when Rod Barajas is starting. Fryer also has a laser for an arm, so he could help shut down the running game when he does play.

Kyle McPherson - A month ago, McPherson was still rehabbing in Altoona, and struggling at times compared to his numbers at the level in 2011. Since then he’s made three starts with Indianapolis, posting a 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings, with a 17:4 K/BB ratio. He’s also made two appearances in the majors, giving up one earned run on two hits in 3.2 innings, with a 5:2 K/BB ratio. McPherson has a great three pitch mix, throwing a fastball that usually sits 92-93 and touches 95 as a starter. He also has a curve and a change, which are both above-average pitches. He pounds the strike zone, has great command of all his pitches, and throws on a downward plane, making his stuff harder to hit. He profiles as a middle of the rotation starter, and could have a shot at being a number two starter as a best case scenario.

With Jeff Karstens injured, and with a spot currently open after releasing Erik Bedard, it would be good to see Locke and McPherson getting some time in the rotation.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost to the Brewers 9-3.

**Pirates Notebook: Karstens Exits Outing With Injury; Hurdle Believes Team Can Finish.

**Pirates to Call Up Five in First Wave of September Callups.

**Prospect Watch: Taillon and Kingham Finish Their Seasons Strong.

**Six Shut Out Innings For MVP VandenHurk In Indians’ Win.

**Rick VandenHurk, Jeff Locke Receive Indianapolis Awards.

**Minor Moves: Pirates Sign Hector Luna, Upper Level Promotions.

**McPherson, Presley Recalled; d’Arnaud Optioned, Clement Outrighted.

**Matt Curry Wraps Up a Good Year With a Promotion and the AFL.

**Minor League Schedule: 9/1/12.

At this point the Wild Card race looks like a three team race for the second spot, with Atlanta holding a three game lead in the first spot. The Pirates have a good chance to move back in to that second Wild Card spot this weekend. The Cardinals go up against the Nationals, playing Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Stephen Strasburg. And as if the Cardinals didn’t already have a rough series, they saw Rafael Furcal go down with an injury today, which could end his season.

By comparison, the Pirates go up against the Brewers, who didn’t have Thursday off, but instead played a four hour game, losing 12-11 in walk off fashion to the Cubs. The Pirates will have their best starters this weekend, sending Jeff Karstens, A.J. Burnett, and James McDonald. There’s a chance Karstens could miss his start, but the Pirates still have Burnett and McDonald. It’s never a guarantee against Milwaukee, especially on the road, but this is a good time to catch them with their bullpen taxed from Thursday.

The Pirates need to get to the Milwaukee starters, which is no easy task. Friday’s starter, Mark Rogers, threw five shutout innings in his start against the Pirates last week. Marco Estrada didn’t play the Pirates last week. The last time he faced them was July 14th, giving up three earned runs in 5.2 innings, so that could be an easier outing. The challenge will be Yovani Gallardo on Sunday, who always shows up with a big game against the Pirates.

They still have to play the games, so nothing is guaranteed. But on paper the Cardinals are slumping, have lost a key performer, and have a brutal three game pitching matchup this weekend. Meanwhile the Pirates go up against a team that has to be tired from yesterday’s game, with the Pirates throwing their best pitchers.That’s a favorable combination for the Pirates.

Links and Notes

**Prospect Notebook: Cole Impressed In Short Time With Altoona.

**Prospect Watch: Polanco Hits 16th Homer; Holt Picks Up Three More Hits.

**Toledo Beats Indians With Walk-Off Homer.

**Pirates Focus In-House, Rather Than Waiver Claims.

**Kyle McPherson and Alex Presley to Join Team in Milwaukee.

**Matt Curry Promoted to Triple-A.

**Dilson Herrera and Eric Wood Promoted to State College.

**DSL Pirates1 Advance to Dominican Summer League Championship.

**Starling Marte and Tim Wood Named to IL All-Star Team.

**Brock Holt Named Altoona MVP; Phil Irwin Altoona’s Pitcher of the Year.

**Polanco and Hanson Selected as 2012 SAL All-Stars.

**Minor League Schedule: 8/31/12.