Thinking of Alvarez While Recalling Ramirez Being Demoted

It has been a tough season so far for the Pirates. The pitching has been stellar and with just a slight bump in the production from the offense, this team could conceivably be a couple games over .500. But the offense has been putrid. Not only are four players who have been seeing regular playing time not hitting their weight, but three of them aren’t even hitting the weight of my petite 5’5″ wife.

The first logical step in this mess is to send Pedro Alvarez down to the minors. Which would hurt his confidence more: flailing in the majors and striking out with great frequency? Or being sent to the minors to get some at bats against a slightly lesser quality of pitcher? I don’t pretend to know what thoughts lurk in his mind. So, all I can do is present my case for sending him down.

First let’s look at Aramis Ramirez back in 2000. As a 21-year-old, he was the Pirates starting 3B on Opening Day, after having spent part of the previous two seasons with the Big Club. After going 10-60 (but only ten whiffs) and notching a .167/.219/.250 line, the Pirates shipped him to AAA Nashville. He hit better than .350 in 44 games on the farm. He came back up in mid-June and hit .284/.316/.448 the rest of the way. He was sidelined with a shoulder injury in late August and was replaced at third by an agglomeration of John Wehner, Enrique Wilson, Keith Osik and Mike Benjamin.

A different case is Ron Gant. Dirt Bike Ronnie finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting as the Braves 2B in 1988. But in 1989 they asked him to move to third. It was awful. Through 60 games Gant had just 35 hits in 204 at bats. His line was .172/.233/.309. He also had 16 errors. To help him get straightened out at the plate and to teach him to play the outfield, the Braves demoted him all the way to class A Sumter. It worked. Gant crushed the ball for Sumter for two weeks before being brought up to AAA Richmond. After a little more than two months in Richmond, he came back to Atlanta.

Both these players went on to make multiple All-Star teams and hit more than 300 homers in their careers. I’m sure if I looked hard enough, I could find a case where a guy got sent down and was ruined. But as I stated before, I’m not sure which is potentially going to do more damage – epic failure at the Major League level or a demotion to the minors.

Finally, here’s the case of a pitcher who faced a similar devotion. In another country back in 2000, the Blue Jays shipped out Roy Halladay after he appeared in eight games (seven starts) and put up an ERA near 12.00. Halladay broke camp as Toronto’s #2 starter behind David Wells. Two years later, Halladay made the first of his eight All-Star appearances.

The GMs involved in these moves? For the Pirates it was Cam Bonifay. Bobby Cox was the GM of the Braves in the late 1980s before moving down to guide the team from the field. In Toronto it was Gord Ash.

My vote, as if it counts, is to send Pedro down. Have McGehee play third and see how the next six weeks play out.

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  • Todd Smith

    Because what we really need is for him to go down and crush minor league pitching for a few weeks….again.  Then bring him back up and let him struggle as he tries to adjust to facing better pitching…again.  He’s been making better contact as the season has been going on, he just can’t get anything to drop in.  A lot of it is just bad luck – like the play that knocked Chris Young out.  He’s not going to have a .000 BABIP all season.  It’s far too soon to panic.

  • http://twitter.com/RandyLinville Randy Linville

    Todd – thanks for the comment. I don’t believe Pedro ever ‘crushed’ pitching at the AAA level. In 2010, his OPS at Indy was lower than Steve Pearce and Neil Walker and just barely north of Jeff Clement. He whiffed twice as often as he walked that season. When he was farmed out in 2011, his BA and SLG were both lower than in 2010. He has not dominated AAA pitching to the point that I would say he ‘crushed’ it.

    If by better contact you mean he has whiffed just three times in his last three starts (ten at bats), then you are right. But, if we are defining that whiff rate as ‘better contact’ then help us all as that would translate into 180 strikeouts in a season. The club record is 169 by Craig Wilson. 

    Strikeouts aren’t a big deal (most dinger hitters of recent vintage have elevated strikeout rates) so long as you don’t look bad time after time while striking out. Pedro has looked bad with so much frequency that he appears to be lost.

    Demoting him isn’t a panic move. Pedro certainly wouldn’t be the first or the last top shelf prospect to get straightened out in the minors. Another example like Ramirez and Gant is former Giants 3B Matt Williams who spent three seasons with time at both SF and AAA.

    • Todd Smith

      It would also translate into 54 HR based on his past three games.

      …or maybe it’s a silly argument to project stats based on 3 games.

      The club record for strikeouts is 169.  In 1971, Willie Stargell had 154 strikeouts.  He finished 2nd in MVP voting that year.  Mike Schmidt had 180 strikeouts in 1975. Jim Thome has had 140+ strikeouts 10 times in his career.  Reggie Jackson had 140+ strikeouts 6 times in his career.  

      Even if Pedro does fully realize his maximum potential at some point in his career, he is still going to have more than his fair share of strikeouts.  That’s just the kind of hitter he is.  Freaking out after a whole 30 games and sending him down to the minors isn’t going to fix that and turn him into Ted Williams.

      • http://twitter.com/RandyLinville Randy Linville

        I agree it is silly to project anything based on three games – you started it by saying he was making better contact ‘as the season has gone on’. Hence my three game comment. Over the course of the short season, he hasn’t made good contact – not in a three game sample and not in a ten game sample. And over the course of his career he hasn’t made good contact. Baseball-reference.com notes he’d have 194 whiffs in a 162 game season. He hasn’t, over any sample size of any length, made good contact in his career. 

        I agree that sluggers often have high strikeout rates. I’m the one who brought it up in my first comment (‘most dinger hitters of recent vintage have elevated strikeout rates’). As I noted before, whiffs don’t scare me so long as the person striking out doesn’t often look foolish. Pedro has often looked foolish this year. It’s not the whiffs that scare me it is the fact that he has seemingly looked clueless at the plate. So, yes, I’m fine with him striking out often – if he can hit 35 homers a year and walk at a decent rate and play a marginal third base. But right now the way he is swinging and missing indicates he is lost at the plate. 

        I don’t see how sending him down is pushing the panic button. It is a measure taken frequently by teams to help get a wayward player back on track. I’m not advocating fixing the number of strikeouts. I’m advocating fixing how bad his at bats have looked. It’ll be easier to do that in the minors where there is less pressure on Pedro and no impact on the wins and losses for the big club.

        No one in their right mind expects him to turn into Ted Williams.

        • Todd Smith

          I tell you it’s ridiculous to make projections on a 3 game sample size, and you counter with a 10 game sample size.  Wow.

          • http://twitter.com/RandyLinville Randy Linville

            No – I countered with the length of his Big League career. Go to http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarpe01.shtml and take a look at the line that lists 162 game average. His 162 game average is 194 whiffs. That’s for his career – not just for 2012. His 2012 whiff rate projected to 162 games would be 243 (162 divided by 10 and multiplied by 15).

            How often he whiffs is immaterial to this discussion as we agree that he strikes out a lot and is the type of player who will strike out a lot.

            The problem is that right now he looks silly at the plate. It isn’t the number of whiffs, it is the manner in which he continuously looks fooled that needs to be fixed. The even higher than normal strikeout rate to start the season is a symptom of a larger issue – he is lost at the plate. Best place for him right now is AAA.

          • Todd Smith

            Clearly, he’s not improving at all.  Good call!

          • http://twitter.com/RandyLinville Randy Linville

            He’s hitting .118. I wouldn’t exactly be gloating… 

          • Todd Smith

            How about now?

          • http://twitter.com/RandyLinville Randy Linville

            Yep – I think now is a good time to admit I was wrong. Gloat all you wish. You were right and I was wrong…

          • http://twitter.com/RandyLinville Randy Linville

            He has two hits tonight. And two more RBI. I hope he keeps it up. One game is an even smaller sample size yet…

  • NorCalBuc

    Petey’s got to play regularly with the Bucs; he’s shown great improvement this week, with his HR in AZ; sharper contact; and two hits and RBIs off a top flight pitcher last nite.

  • http://twitter.com/jlease717 John Lease

    Couldn’t agree more.  He needs to work on pitch recognition, and was rushed to the bigs.  Like Ramirez, who was rushed even more.  The Pirates have options, and Alvarez needs to learn how to hit.

  • st1300b

    Always going to be fireworks in any Pedro discussion. I agree with Randy, he has to improve pitch recognition and I wouldn’t be upset if it was in AAA – McGehee has played better than him and should start.
    Not sure what it’s going to take, but to start with he needs to cover the plate better and lay off the pitches at his neck which he has been swinging at with greater frequency.

  • Kevin_Creagh

    I want Alvarez to play the whole year in Pittsburgh so that the Pirates get a full year to evaluate him at the majors.

    I don’t want him to spend half the year in AAA and then this offseason hear fans say “We still need to see what we have in Alvarez.  He only spent half the year in Pittsburgh.”

    The Pirates need to decide this year whether to keep him or explore other alternatives.  If they keep shunting him from Pittsburgh to AAA, it will be a never-ending decision cycle of not knowing what they have.

    • http://twitter.com/RandyLinville Randy Linville

      I don’t know if there is another reason other than his slump (I’m unaware if he was nicked up and needed to sit one out), but including the game of 4/24, Alvarez has only started 11 of 16 games in 2012. That equates to about 120 starts. If they are going to leave him up here, then he should start 150 times if he is healthy. I’d rather have him spend four weeks in the minors (or until he gets comfortable – two weeks, two months – whatever it takes) and then start him nearly every game from June to the end of the year in Pittsburgh than sit out twice a week as he has been doing now.