Burnett and the NL Cy Young Chase

Every start by A.J. Burnett is must-see TV for a Pirate fan this year.  His last 2 starts were a complete game 1-hitter and a so-close-c’mon-finish-it 8.2 IP/2 hitter.  That oh-so-close game was against the Reds last Sunday and salvaged a very important win for the Pirates in that 3 game series.  As a result, the drums are starting to beat on talk radio and the rest of the media about Burnett being a contender for the NL Cy Young award.

Let’s take a rough cut at who the competition may be.  In this list are the triple slash stats for pitchers (ERA/FIP/xFIP) so we can see potential regression trends or who’s getting “lucky”. 

  W-L ERA FIP xFIP IP H/9 BB/9 K/9
Burnett 14-3 3.19 3.58 3.49 132 7.7 2.7 7.4
Gonzalez 14-6 3.32 2.68 3.19 141 6.8 3.4 9.8
Strasburg 12-5 2.97 2.69 2.71 127 7.8 2.4 11.3
Dickey 15-3 2.72 2.87 3.06 162 7.0 2.0 9.2
Hamels 12-6 3.14 3.51 3.29 154 7.8 2.3 8.9
Cueto 14-6 2.58 3.02 3.56 153 8.7 2.0 7.3
Lohse 12-2 2.79 3.56 4.17 148 8.5 1.6 5.4
Bumgarner 12-7 3.08 3.43 3.24 154 7.5 1.8 8.4
Cain 10-5 3.01 3.41 3.63 152 7.4 1.9 8.4
Vogelsong 10-5 2.27 3.67 4.41 143 7.0 3.0 6.6
Kershaw 9-6 2.88 2.92 3.33 156 7.0 2.4 8.6

As you can see, it’s a pretty deep crowd this year, with some teams (WAS, SF) having multiple contenders.  In an attempt to winnow down the list, let’s take a look at certain candidates.  Kyle Lohse has some large differentials between his slash lines, plus he has the lowest K/9 on the list, so eliminate him.  Ryan Vogelsong continues to be a great story, but if you can’t make the case that you are even the best on your own staff, you get eliminated.  Although Steve Carlton did it, it is very tough to win the Cy Young on a last place team, so Cole Hamels is probably not a realistic contender.  And even though Felix Hernandez won the AL Cy Young with 13 wins in 2010, Clayton Kershaw’s win total is going to surpress his chances.

So keeping Burnett in this exercise, that leaves Burnett, Gonzalez, Strasburg, Dickey, Cueto, Bumgarner, and Cain.  You could make a case for any of these 7, but realistically Burnett is the next guy to get cut from the list.  Bumgarner and Cain have virtually identical stats, but Cain has a perfect game and 1-hitter on his resume this year, so Bumgarner will have to wait his turn.  Cueto has been the most hittable and has the lowest K/9 of these 7 remaining contenders, so I’m crossing him off next.  That leaves Gonzalez, Strasburg, Dickey, and Cain.

With the typical caveats that each of these pitchers still have probably 10 starts to make until the end of the season, I see this coming down to R.A. Dickey versus Stephen Strasburg.  Dickey’s arcane arsenal of different types of knuckle balls makes for a great story, even if his team will be finishing under .500.  If Strasburg gets shut down to preserve his arm, then his teammate Gonzalez will jump in as the “first place Washington Nationals Cy Young” representative.  If I had a vote, I would go Dickey-Strasburg-Gonzalez as my personal 1-2-3 for the Cy Young. 

Andrew McCutchen may be the clubhouse leader for NL MVP, but A.J. Burnett is the Pirates’ team MVP.  He has set the tone for this season with his play on and off the field.  He is the true stopper that this team has been searching for since 1992.  Burnett has been Neal Huntington’s greatest acquistion to-date, but that does not make him a Cy Young candidate in 2012.

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About Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh resides in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and has been a Pirate fan since the mid 1980′s. Kevin joined Pirates Prospects in July 2010 and enjoys writing about the economic side of baseball decisions. Many of Kevin’s articles focus on the long-term decisions that the Pirates and other organizations may need to make in the future, in order to balance escalating player salaries with built-in payroll limitations. Kevin also enjoys following prospects throughout the Pirates’ minor league system and forecasting their potential to help the major league team.
  • http://twitter.com/domdidominic Dom

    You did not even go to the Kimbrel & Chapman arguments.

    • Kevin_Creagh

      Yeah, true. I’m a little bit of a purist in the fact that I don’t think a reliever should win the CY — they only pitch 1/3 as many innings as a reliever, not as much worth (yada yada). If there is an absence of a dominant starter, then a dominant reliever could win. But this year there are plenty of good candidates.

  • http://www.facebook.com/dan.zalisnock Dan Zalisnock

    I would have to agree Dickey is the front runner to this point.