Taillon Compared to Recent Aces at High A

Posted by on June 29, 2012 | 20 Comments

As Tim noted recently, Jameson Taillon was touched for a couple of long balls in his most recent start. Since I recently examined how pitchers who cracked Baseball America’s Top 20 prospect list had fared, I also began to wonder about how those aces performed when they were in high A.

So I did some digging at baseball-reference.com. I also wondered if any of theses leagues were considered hitter friendly or pitcher friendly. Thankfully, Baseball America has done some research on the subject. The data doesn’t go back as far as when the pitchers in question were hurling at this level of the minors. But I assume that the data is directionally correct. That is, I doubt that the California was the toughest high A league to score in ten years ago when it is the easiest high A league to score in more recently. It is quite possible that I’m wrong about that. But that is my assumption.

Looking at the data below, most of the pitchers that I regarded as top of the rotation pitchers in the Majors were dominant at high A. Taillon has made 15 starts at high A this year. Half these guys blew through the league quickly, making less than 15 starts, and the other half made 15 or more starts (Halladay, Hamels, due to injuries, Hernandez, Sabathia, Wainwright).

Six of the ten aces were 18 or 19 when they made their high A debut. Lincecum, Oswalt and Verlander were the old men of the group, with their high A season coming when they were 22. Verlander made his MLB debut the same season and Lincecum and Oswalt were in the Majors by the age of 23. In fact, all ten of these guys were in the Show by the age of 23.

The only pitchers who struggled to the same degree that Taillon has are Sabathia and Wainwright. Sabathia was younger and Wainwright wasn’t really struggling as much as he wasn’t as dominant as the other guys were. Both Wainwright and Sabathia had issues with their command, giving them higher WHIP and lower a SO/BB than what Taillon has had so far. Out of the ten, Sabathia was the only one to struggle enough to repeat the league on that basis. Sabathia was not crazy/dominant in the mid-minors. In his age 19 season his ERA was near 3.50 combined between A+ and AA when the Indians put him in their Major League rotation.

I also thought it’d be interesting to see how Taillon compared to the two Pirate pitchers who cracked Baseball America’s Top 20 list – Kris Benson and Bobby Bradley. So, their data is also included. Bradley had elbow surgery in June 2001 and then had Tommy John surgery that October, causing him to miss all of 2002. He was back in high A in 2003, but the data below only includes his first stint.

I know that this is a small sample size. I know there are plenty of factors that I’m oblivious to that already have or might come into play. Taillon is still very young at 20 and might be able to quickly put it together. And I certainly hope he does. But this set of data does not make me feel very good about Taillon’s future as a front of the rotation pitcher.

Name MLB Debut Year Age League W L ERA GS IP HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB FIP
Matt Cain 20 2004 19 CAL 7 1 1.86 13 72.2 5 1.032 11.0 5.24 2.51
Zack Greinke 20 2003 19 CAR 11 1 1.14 14 87.0 5 0.793 8.1 6.00 2.67
Roy Halladay 21 1996 19 FLO 15 7 2.73 27 164.2 7 1.239 6.0 2.37 3.38
Cole Hamels 22 2003-06 19-22 FLO 4 3 2.06 16 78.2 0 1.220 11.8 3.03 1.95
Felix Hernandez 19 2004 18 CAL 9 3 2.74 15 92.0 5 1.207 11.2 4.38 2.54
Tim Lincecum 23 2006 22 CAL 2 0 1.95 6 27.2 3 0.904 15.6 4.00 2.44
Roy Oswalt 23 2000 22 FLO 4 3 2.98 8 45.1 1 1.390 9.3 4.27 2.21
C.C. Sabathia 20 1999-00 18-19 CAR 6 5 4.19 17 88.0 7 1.375 10.0 2.28 3.58
Justin Verlander 22 2005 22 FLO 9 2 1.67 13 86.0 3 1.035 10.9 5.47 2.14
Adam Wainwright 23 2002 20 CAR 9 6 3.31 28 163.1 7 1.316 9.2 2.53 3.11
Jameson Taillon ?? 2012 20 FLO 5 6 4.18 15 79.2 6 1.180 8.0 3.23 3.34
Kris Benson 24 1997 22 CAR 5 2 2.58 10 59.1 1 1.045 10.9 5.54 1.74
Bobby Bradley - 2001 20 CAR 1 2 3.12 9 49.0 3 1.306 8.4 2.30 3.40

EDIT: I squeezed the FIP data into the table, which I got from fangraphs.com. Their minor league data doesn’t go as far back as I needed it to. So, I calculated the FIP using their standard equation and using 3.20 as the constant. This adds some more data that puts Halladay in the same company as Sabathia and Wainwright in terms of not clearly being among the best of the best at high A. But this doesn’t alter my conclusion – this data doesn’t make me feel like making a gentlemen’s bet (or a more serious wager) regarding Taillon’s future.

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  • john.alcorn

    As I expected, most aces just don’t struggle with results at high A, only CC had an era north of 3.50 and he was much younger. This is why I am concerned too, not jump off a cliff worried, but somewhat concerned.

    • ElGaupo77

      It’s comparing apples and oranges. All the other guys listed were throwing much more offspeed pitches…. especially sliders. Given his full repertoire his HRs are 2… his K/9 are over 10 and his ERA and WHIP are much lower.

  • http://twitter.com/pskell02 Patrick Kelly

    I think looking at ERA terrible way to evaluate Taillon and to compare to the others in this list. I am much more concerned with his K/BB rates, WHIP, HR rate and LD%. His walks are in line or lower than a lot of the others, same with WHIP. His K’s are a bit low, but not a ton lower. As long as he keeps the ball down, he is fine. When he elevates, he gets hit around, but not all that much as his WHIP indicates. A bad small bad stretch blew up the ERA, otherwise he would be looking fine.

    • john.alcorn

      It wasn’t a small stretch, he has been getting hit for the most recent half of the season. He was great for his first 7 starts, then the last 8 has 1 dominant outing surrounded by mediocre or worse. I specifically said I was worried about results which are measured by ERA. I’m as SABR friendly as you will find, but in this case my concern is why isn’t he dominating the level. His FIP is 3.34, not really great either. The K rate is too low, he’s getting hit at too high of a rate, and he’s flat out allowing too many runs for an ace level prospect.
      Its not panic time, but its worth watching.

      • Dave Parker’s Unfiltered Camel

        Does the analysis take into account how the Pirates are making him pitch vs. how other organizations developed their pitchers? Could the focus on fastball command and the change up be causing his numbers to be inflated? I’m just wondering.

        • RandyLinville

          I believe it would be impossible for me to take into account how the Pirates are handling Taillon (fastball command and the like) compared with how other teams have dealt with similarly talented pitchers. No question that a specialized focus can affect the numbers, but I don’t know of a way to account for that.

      • RandyLinville

        I dropped the FIP data in there. Good idea to look at that as well.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=72405411 Ian Rothermund

    It’s interesting to see this comparison of future aces. However, I’m indifferent, and I’ll tell you why.

    First, while its interesting to see this comparison; how the different pitchers we view as “aces” now stack up against the bright young stars in the Pirates system, ultimates you’re measuring and comparing unlike entities. What Roy Halladay did 15 years ago has no bearing on Taillon’s development and how he goes about his work now. I realize in response to this, you might say, well I didn’t mean to imply Taillon isn’t going anywhere. Idk, I suppose I’m just not a huge fan of statistical compilations like this because they don’t mean anything. They imply nothing.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=72405411 Ian Rothermund

      Until Taillon’s 23 and can’t get past AA, there’s no reason for panic. There’s especially no reason when the guys straight out of high school and only into his second pro season. Why is it a problem for him to not even be struggling that badly at 20 whenever Cole just came in and was doing well all while being 2 years older.

      Everyone just wants to rush him to the show, rather than nursing his development. This is why you don’t draft for need, because everyone goes at their own pace. He has the stuff, so once he can put it altogether, he’s a guy that could go from AA to Pittsburgh in a season.

      • RandyLinville

        I’m not suggesting panic. Not by any means. But I look at this data and it doesn’t make me feel good. I’d much rather have him mowing people down and breezing through his time in A+ than laboring to the degree that he has.

        I would respectfully disagree that what Halladay and the others have done is immaterial to what Taillon is doing now. There are a number of people in this industry/business/sport whose sole task involves figuring out how to project the performance of a minor leaguer into performance at the Major League level. There are obviously many more factors involved than what I’ve looked at. But I wouldn’t dismiss these figures as meaningless or without implication.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=72405411 Ian Rothermund

          But ultimately all you can do is say, person A’s stats at this point were this, while player B’s stats are currently this. I feel bad for statisticians if many of them of forced to invent correlations like this. You’re talking about individual players, there’s no literal connection between guys 10 years ago and now. Comparing players 10 years ago to their contemporaries is also meaningless in a way, because prior achievement by one player has no bearing on that of another. No matter how much you compare and show track records, it’s impossible to form a tangible, meaningful level of expectation. It all just is what it is, there are just a lot of people running around trying to find meaning where there isn’t any, and not just in baseball. Regardless, I’ll stick with the guy that touches the high-90′s with a curve like that. Maybe, just maybe, he simply needs more time.

          • RandyLinville

            I understand what you are saying and I agree with you that what Tim Lincecum did has no bearing on what Taillon or Cole or Heredia or Appel have done or will do.

            But, there are patterns to what baseball players do. Its why Bill James would write that players peak at age 27 to 29. There is a general pattern to performance that can be gauged by what other players are doing and have done. It doesn’t mean everyone will follow that same pattern. Some guys might have their best season at age 31. But most people won’t. Most guys who reach 400 homers have their first 30 homer season at age 25 or 26. But some players with 400 bombs (like Ripken) don’t have their first 30 home run season until later in their career.

            That’s how I see this: of the ten future aces I looked at, seven (maybe eight) clearly dominated at high A. Two clearly didn’t. Taillon currently isn’t dominating at high A. It doesn’t mean that Taillon won’t turn into a #1 starter.

            I can’t look at this and say it is meaningless and I think that a tangible level of expectation can be formed and has been formed – that’s what all of the predictive measurements (ZiPS and PECOTA and the like) that are published every year before Spring Training are all about. They certainly aren’t 100% accurate, but they are using data in a much more sophisticated way than I have to project the level of success of different players.

  • ElGaupo77

    How many sliders did Taillon average per outing? I bet <5. How many Curves? Probably <5 as well. These other guys…. especially the college pitchers…. used their whole repertoires. Until you include those stats the numbers are useless.

    Neil is smartly making sure the HS pitchers don't tear their labrums, while working on Fastball command and building innings.

    • RandyLinville

      I don’t know what the ratios of his different pitches have been in 2012. But I think it is fair to say the organization has been focused on fastballs. However, Taillon acknowledged earlier in the year he was also working on his changeup (http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120429&content_id=29990702&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb).

      Eight of ten noted above as #1s didn’t go to college – Lincecum and Verlander did. So, I’m sure that developing a slider or curve or other pitch during live competition is going to bring down your stats.

      Also, if Taillon is primarily throwing smoke with limited focus on other stuff, I would expect his walk rate to plummet accordingly.

      • ElGaupo77

        He has a plus plus curve that could have his K/9 numbers at 10+. He’s just not using it to focus FB and CH…… which I think is smart.

        His BB/9 is basically the same as all the other guys on the list. His K/9 is lower causing his BB/K to be lower. But Tallion has to paint corners with his FB instead of throwing his nasty curve just OVER the plate. It’s actually HARDER to limit walks in this instance.

        I don’t want to burst your bubble but doing a sabermetric based article on any of our minor league pitchers is kinda useless until they hit AAA (maybe AA). Too many assumptions need to be made and unless you’re at the ballpark charting pitches it’s moot.

        • RandyLinville

          I’m confused by your walks comments. If it is harder to limit walks with the focus being what it is, then how do you account for Taillon’s walk rate being slightly better than the average guy on this list?

          Clearly, as I’ve acknowledged, there are components to Taillon’s development that I’m not aware of. But I’d be willing to bet that the other 29 GMs aren’t as dismissive of this data as you are. It has value – it isn’t a complete picture – but it has value.

          • ElGaupo77

            If he’d use the curve the K/9 would go up past 10, the BB/9 would come down some (say from 2.47 to 2.00) so the K/BB would go from 3.34 to around 5.

            Second, it doesn’t matter what his value is, we’re not trading him. He has much more value giving us 6.5 years than in any deal.

            Lastly you’re also using too small a sample size to make any tangible assumptions. Keith Law, etc. say to use any less than a full season for any type of saber metric analysis is flawed.

            Until Omar goes down to Bradenton, watches him throw a couple games and reports that he’s regressing I’m ignoring all doomsday prophecies.

          • RandyLinville

            The assumption on the walk rate is that he has as good of control over his curve as he does his fastball. I think that is flawed as I think few pitchers at age 20 can throw strikes as consistently with their curve as they can with the fastball.

            I don’t think we should trade him. No question this sample size is small as most of these aces have merely had a box to check off at high A on their way up the chain rather then spending half a season at the level. I’m simply saying based on the data that we have, it doesn’t make me happy. I don’ t look at the numbers and get a good feeling. I’m not suggesting doom and gloom. The numbers are what they are – they are by no means stellar. And there are a lot of factors at play that I’m not aware of. But that doesn’t mean that these numbers don’t have value.

            Who is Omar?

          • ElGaupo77

            No. If you are trying to put your fastball on the corners vice merely throwing the curve for a strike the fastball is harder to get strikes. I.e. command vs. control.

            The only reason I care about this is that casual Pirate fan looks to the media for their opinions. When an article posts a negative picture when it’s not true I point it out. I also point out when media/bloggers paint sunshine and happiness (i.e. Owens and Locke are #3 starters).

            Pittsburghers need SO little to hate on the Pirates……while they’ll defend the Steelers/Pens to their last breath. Drives me crazy.

          • RandyLinville

            We need to agree to disagree on the BB/9 rate. You are making some assumptions that I disagree with to get to your conclusion.

            I wouldn’t call this picture untrue – the data is 100% correct. And my conclusion is based on the data – I’d feel better if he was as dominate as most of the rest of the future aces have been. As I’ve acknowledged, the painting is likely incomplete due to factors that aren’t known about development strategies and their effect on the numbers. I think it is more fair to call this ‘not complete’ than to call it ‘not true’.