First Pitch: Did the Pirates Make a Mistake With the Wandy Rodriguez Trade?

After the Wandy Rodriguez trade was made, I wrote about how I wasn’t a fan of the deal. It wasn’t that I thought Rodriguez was a bad player. I think he can be a good pitcher for the Pirates down the stretch, and for the next few years. I didn’t like the deal for two reasons.

First, I didn’t like that the Pirates gave up Robbie Grossman to get Rodriguez. I can live with dealing Rudy Owens or Colton Cain away, but Grossman was putting up the same numbers in Double-A that he put up in Bradenton last year. The Pirates currently have one established outfielder in the majors, and Grossman looks like a guy who is a year away from getting a shot, in a best case scenario.

A bigger reason why I didn’t like the deal was that I felt Wandy Rodriguez was no longer the pitcher that people think of when they hear his name. He’s no longer the high strikeout left-hander who puts up nearly a strikeout an inning, with a decent walk rate. He’s lost about two strikeouts per nine innings the last few years, increased his ground ball ratio, and dropped a walk per nine innings. That’s still a very good pitcher, but one that’s easier to obtain.

I was thinking about that tonight. Rodriguez gave up three runs in seven innings, striking out four. It wasn’t a horrible start, but he had two really bad pitches that cost him — a hanging breaking ball to Chris Heisey, and a home run to Mat Latos. But that’s not why I was thinking about how a pitcher like the current version of Rodriguez is easier to obtain.

Down in Triple-A, Jeff Locke had a dominant start. He pitched 7.1 shutout innings, giving up three hits and two walks, while striking out ten. He did this against a Scranton/Wilkes-Barre team that ranks third in the international league in OPS. And this isn’t new for Locke. On the season he has a 2.66 ERA in 125 innings, with a 113:38 K/BB ratio. He throws 88-92 MPH with his fastball, usually sitting toward the top of that range. He throws a big breaking curveball, and he’s added a ton of control to his pitches this year with a new turn to his delivery.

Locke is major league ready right now. He wouldn’t have cost any prospects. He would be making the league minimum next year, rather than taking up $8 M in payroll with the Pirates projected to spend $63 M before any off-season additions. And there’s a good chance that he can be just as good as Rodriguez is right now.

The knock against Locke is his lack of experience. You don’t know what you’re going to get, which isn’t a situation you want to put yourself in during a playoff race. But what’s the price of adding an established player? It seems that three prospects, $8 M in payroll in 2013, and a potential $7.5 M in 2014, is a lot to spend when you’ve got a guy in Triple-A who looks like he could be just as good.

The Pirates are expected to use a spot starter over the next 20 games, giving their rotation a break. Jeff Locke should be that spot starter. It would give them a chance to see what Locke can do in the majors. It’s too late to give him that shot this year and avoid adding Rodriguez. But giving him a spot start and a chance in the majors this year could add some comfort for next year, when the projected Opening Day rotation looks to be one man short, and could definitely use Locke in the mix.

Links and Notes

**The Pirates lost to the Reds 3-0.

**Pirates Notebook: Game One Against Reds Ends in Emotion From McCutchen; Pirates Shuffle Rotation.

**Prospect Watch: A Good Night For Pitchers With Locke and Kingham Leading the Way.

**Locke Wins Pitching Duel, Strikes Out 10.

**Ryan Hafner Struggling With His Control This Year.

**Minor League Schedule: 8/4/12.

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About Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He is a credentialed media member with every team in the Pirates’ system, including the Pirates themselves. He’s a regular guest on Extra Innings on 104.7, and makes regular appearances on ESPN 970, 93.7 The Fan, and TribLIVE Radio in Pittsburgh, as well as ESPN 1430 in Altoona and ESPN 1450 in State College.
  • ElGaupo77

    Wandy went 7 and gave up only 3 runs (really 2) to one of the best teams in baseball…in a tiny ballpark. Locke carved up a lineup of garbage. Zach Cozart would hit 3rd for Scranton. This doesn’t prove anything.

    Next year’s rotation will have Locke AND Wandy…. as well as Burnett, J-Mac and Karstens.

    • Lee Young

      Wandy pitched against a team that wasn’t exactly murderers row last night. Votto, Bruce and Phillips were out.

      And he still gave up 3 runs!

      Weren’t we getting that production from KC? How did we upgrade?

      • john.alcorn

        Wow, if you need to be told how Wandy is better than Correia its a lost cause.

        I liked Grossman more than most, but Wandy is a very godo addition to this rotation. Tim claiming Locke is just as good is a huge stretch overvaluing our prospects. At any rate Locke will likely be the #5 next year.

        • Lee Young

          John…Wandy USED to be better than KC ‘hands down’. Now, they are the same pitcher. What part of “5.45 ERA since May” don’t you understand? He is nothing more than a 5th starter type.

          I don’t MIND having Wandy, but not at the price of Grossman.

          Foo

          .

          • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

            I would still take Wandy over Correia. They’re not the same pitcher. Wandy gets twice as many strikeouts, which is really important.

          • cocktailsfor2

            …if you’re going to use ERA as your basis of argument, you’ll find yourself pretty lonely around P2

          • Lee Young

            I hate being lonely….:) :)

            Foo

            .

          • cocktailsfor2

            Ha! ;-)

          • Lee Young

            Btw, I read all the articles about KC supposedly will regress. Now KC wasn’t great, but a) he WASN’T regressing (pretty good last outing) and b) if anything Bedard should’ve been sent to the ‘pen.

            I am not a fan of KC, Bedard OR Wandy. Would’ve loved to have seen Locke up here. And even if I agree that Wandy is the better of those pitchers, the upgrade wasn’t enough to trade Grossman.

            Hopefully, as I’ve stated above, I will be proven wrong and Wandy will dazzle us down the stretch.

            I just don’t see it.

            .

          • cocktailsfor2

            I didn’t say KC was crappy. I AM saying Wandy is better than KC.

          • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

            Funny thing about Correia is that I would have replaced him all season due to the lack of strikeouts. But in the last month he’s put up decent strikeout rates (6.3 K/9 in July before being removed from the rotation, 7.9 K/9 after the break). He also said he made an adjustment to focus more on strikeouts.

            A big reason I liked him when he came to the Pirates was that he could strike people out (6.7 K/9 in 2009/2010 as a full time starter). I would have been less inclined to call for him to be removed from the rotation if he was striking out guys like he was in those three starts after the break.

          • Lee Young

            The much maligned Mark Malone, er ah Kevin Correia. Just starting to pitch well and he’s yanked from the rotation.
            :) :)

        • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

          It’s not overvaluing Locke at all. Is it possible that you’re just undervaluing him?

          • Lee Young

            I’d rather seen Locke come up than trade for Wandy.

  • salempirate

    Q: Mistake?
    A: Overpay. Salary and prospects. Astros couldn’t find a taker for over a year. With all the PR from the F.O. about young pitching, the Pirates now start 2 33 y.o. and a 35 y.o. Not that I’d be willing to give the 35 y.o. back to the Millionaires club.
    Q: Qualls=mistake #2?
    A RP facing DFA for a 1B/3B whose a desirable fill-in for 2 injured players?

    • Lee Young

      Don’t forget about getting a 1bman who had hit .225 the 2nd half of last year and was hitting so poorly that the Marlins sent him to AAA AND traded for Carlos Lee.

      Not sure why we wanted that.

      • john.alcorn

        We wanted that because the Snider trade made us very LH and Gaby can hit LHP while McGehee can’t.

        The Qualls trade was two guys about to be dfa’d for each other, no loss there.

        • Lee Young

          Gaby USED to be able to hit LHPs. From the All Star break last year to before got sent down, his average is WORSE than Casey’s vs LHP.

          But then, you knew that, right?
          Let me repeat: The Marlins preferred Carlos Lee over Gaby!!!

          I love Neal, but he traded for PAST performance vs current performance.

          Two years ago, these would’ve been steals. Now, we’ve been stolen from.

          .

          • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

            I think the Sanchez move is a buy low move. If he rebounds to his 2010/2011 numbers he’d be worth more than a compensation pick in return.

          • Lee Young

            And he was LOW….

            Did they really buy him low? It cost us a comp pick and more importantly the $$$. If we had had that extra pick THIS year, we could’ve drafted a HS senior and Mark Appel might be a Bucco farmhand.

            JMHO.

          • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

            I don’t think that would have changed the Appel situation. They had a comp pick this year, and they spent the money. They didn’t save money until rounds 6-10.

          • Lee Young

            Tim….but what I am saying is: They may not have wanted the player (and #33 picks don’t have an impressive history), but if they HAD had that pick this year, they could’ve drafted a College (not HS) and used that towards Appel.

            AND, if Appel falls again and he consents to us drafting him again, we may rue losing that money?

          • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

            What I’m saying is that they didn’t go with that approach last year (booting the comp pick to save money for Appel) so I don’t think they’d do it this coming year.

            Also, if Appel falls again, this time as a college senior, then I don’t think a team would have to struggle finding money for him.

          • Lee Young

            Good point on ‘booting’ the comp pick.

            Like I said above….I need to get over this.

            GO BUCS! Go JMAC!

          • cocktailsfor2

            …and then the Fish spent the last week trying to GIVE El Caballo AWAY.

          • Lee Young

            The point is, they thought a washed up Lee was better than Gaby.

          • cocktailsfor2

            No, the point is that THEY WERE WRONG. CLee is not better than Gaby.

            Teams make bad decisions / wrong evaluations alla time.

          • Lee Young

            Then why did they trade Gaby? Perhaps they didn’t want to bring him up?

          • http://twitter.com/VRRCards VRR Cards

            And where have the Marlins astute evaluations gotten them this year?

          • http://twitter.com/NovaTodd Todd Brown10

            You seem well versed in the art of using arbitrary endpoints to advance your arguments. The fact of the matter is we have a large amount of data that shows Gaby Sanchez to be a superior hitter against LHP; we don’t have enough data to conclude that he USED to be a superior hitter against LHP. The statistics you cite COULD mean something has materially changed with Sanchez and he is no longer the hitter he used to be. They could just as easily be noise in a sea of data. Time will tell.

          • Lee Young

            (time will tell) You are correct….I think what irked me is that these two guys were being mentioned prior to the trade deadlines and I posted that I didn’t want them. I thought their best days were behind them.

            But, now we have them, so it is time, as I posted above, for me to get over it.

            Like you said, time will tell, and as a Bucco fan, I hope I am proven wrong big time. Right now, all any of us have are opinions.

  • http://twitter.com/MrAwesomeWVU MrAwesome

    Locke has every opportunity to crack the 2013 rotation and stay there. The chances 1 of J-Mac, Karstens, Wandy, and Burnett getting injured for an extended period of time are really high. He has certainly earned it and would be pitching for the Pirates right now if not for the fact they’re fighting for a playoff spot.

  • Lee Young

    Tim….my sentiments exactly! It is a VERY unpopular opinion tho. I’ve been getting ‘down arrows’ when I mention that….lol

    I thought Grossman had the potential to be a Lenny Dysktra type.

    I didn’t want Wandy BEFORE the trade. He had a 5,45 ERA since mid-May. Yes, he was pitching in a bandbox, but his HOME ERA was 1 run better.

    Dumb Deal, imho!

  • Dave Parker’s Unfiltered Camel

    Locke instead of Wandy for a team in a pennant race? No. If Locke fails the team is screwed. No wait! They could try Rudy Owens! If he fails? How many starts do you give these AAA pitchers before you pull the plug? How much time do yu have to mess around with it? If you have to pull the plug what is your option? You’re not gonna see a good starter pass thru waivers. The trade for Wandy did two things. 1. It gave the Pirates a solid left handed starter to stabilize the rotation. He’s been consistently good and it’s highly unlikely that that will change. 2. He gives the team a needed starter for next year and possibly 2014. they need him to go with AJ, JMac, Karstens and possibly Locke next year.

    • Lee Young

      Do you think Locke, Owens or even KC could pitch better than the 5.45 ERA Wandy has put up the last 2 months or so? I do. So does Tim.

      • Dave Parker’s Unfiltered Camel

        By that logic, you’re probably ready to send JMac to the minors. After all, he has an 8.71 era over the last month. Would the players you mentioned pitch better than that 5.45 era? I don’t know. I know that Wandy did last night and he’s been better over his last two starts.

        • Lee Young

          JMac ain’t 33 yrs old.

          I hope Wandy does well AND proves me wrong. I AM a Bucco fan. I just think that last night was as good as he’s gonna get. And the Reds had their 3 best hitters OUT of the lineup.

          I’d still rather have Grossman than Rodriguez.

          JMHO.

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      This is a big reason why I’ve been saying for the last few months that they should have removed Correia and called up one of the Indianapolis left-handers.

      • ElGaupo77

        This is easily the most trigger-happy and emotional I’ve ever seen you write. You waited a whole two starts to criticize Wandy when you know better than all of us that it takes years to truly determine if a trade was appropriate.
        We thought we won the Bay trade two weeks after it happened and wanted to crucify Neal initially for the McClouth trade.

        Unless…. this is a blatant attempt to stir the populous and draw attention to the website; then Bravo, you’ve succeeded.

        • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

          First of all, emotions have nothing to do with it. I felt that after Locke had another great start last night, the topic was relevant.

          Second, it’s not like Wandy only has two starts. I don’t start evaluating a player once he joins the Pirates. His two starts did nothing to change my opinion of him. I think he’s a good pitcher, but I also think that the pitcher he is now is much cheaper to acquire. And that’s what I pointed out in this article.

  • maguro

    I thought Wandy pitched pretty well. In any case, what is the point of revisiting the trade after two starts? Let’s see where Wandy, Locke and Grossman are at around this time next year – we’ll have a much better idea of whether the Pirates made a good move or not then.

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      This wasn’t so much about Wandy as it was about Locke. I thought Wandy pitched well. It just so happened that his outing came on the same night as Jeff Locke’s latest dominant outing.

      • maguro

        At some point, either next year or later this year, Wandy and Locke will be in the Pirates rotation, so it’s not like it’s an either/or situation with those two guys.

        The real question is what does Grossman become, and we won’t know that for another couple years at least.

        And again, revisiting the deal after every start by Wandy or Locke oesn’t seem very analytical. Step back a bit, give the players some time to put up some statistiically meaningful performances, then reevaluate.

        • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

          This is the only time I’ve revisited the deal. And it came after another strong outing from Locke (against one of the top three IL hitting teams), and after I looked at the payroll for next season.

          • http://twitter.com/VRRCards VRR Cards

            Does that mean if Locke got shelled there would be no article?

  • http://twitter.com/jamesmvargo James Vargo

    Everyone is neglecting the fact that we can’t HIT! The Cutch/Alvarez powerslump rollercoaster drives me nuts. Could have used a resurgence last night. Please, prove me wrong tonight, guys…

    • Lee Young

      I think we fall somewhere in between our HR bashing ways and our April/May funk.

      Alvarez is streaky….he’ll start bombing again soon.

  • http://twitter.com/jamesmvargo James Vargo

    Also, with Polanco and Bell, Grossman would probably been another stopgap like Pressley. And why was Ludwick written off as a BIG bust after only 112 AB last year? He wanted to resign with us, I thought. I honest to goodness, wanted us to resign him last winter…..just sayin’ — talking about track records.

  • Todd Smith

    Oh, good! It’s the latest edition of Drama Queen Theater!

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      Thanks for adding to the discussion.

      • Todd Smith

        Grossman only went 1 for 4 last night. Clearly,this trade was a huge win for the Pirates.

        • http://twitter.com/VRRCards VRR Cards

          Yea but if Grossman goes 4 for 4 today the trade will be a failure.

    • Lee Young

      we’re guys…it’s Drama King Theater!!!

      sheesh!!!

  • yepperbobknepper

    I think the Wandy trade should be analyzed after every inning he pitches. Two games is too large of a sample size.

    • Lee Young

      lol

  • Lee Young

    After arguing about this all morn, I have beaten to death that I only liked the Snider deal. So as someone said below, the trades have been made, so it is time I got over it.

    Let’s GO BUCS!

  • Ben Hohlfelder

    i think that nh slightly overvalued wandy due to his years of control…am i more comfortable with wandy than locke this year? yes but the years of control may be less meaningful, especially if wandys (age 33) velocity and k rate continue to drop. While the 8mil salary is an issue, the salary issues should and can be dealt with in the offseason by declining barajas option and hopefully trading hanrahan for a bat

  • http://www.facebook.com/dan.zalisnock Dan Zalisnock

    Wandy has pitched solid since we got him. He is an established veteran with a good track record. he is a well known name in major league baseball. I’m tired of everyone whining because we got rid of a prospect or 2. You have to deal prospects to get good veteran help down the stretch in a pennant race. Wandy has one of the nastiest curves in baseball and hasn’t had en ERA over 3.60 since 2007. Grossman was going to be a bench player at best, Owens a 5th rotation guy at best, and Cain might not ever make it past bullpen. Being obsessed with prospects in unhealthy.